ECONOMIC POWER - Communist China vs. Western World

UPDATE (27 JULY 2020)

As of today, this balance of economic power has more or less remained the same.

Yes, the Wuhan Virus has severely mangled the global economy.

But everyone appears to have been uniformly impacted.

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ORIGINAL POST (11 FEBRUARY 2016)

Much has been said about the current Economic Power of Communist China. Let us see how the Nominal GDP figures stack up.

The Nominal GDP of the key countries in the Western World are as follows:

   EU - $18.5 Trillion

   US - $17.9 Trillion

   Latin America - $9.5 Trillion

   Japan - $4.1 Trillion

   Canada - $1.6 Trillion

   South Korea - $1.3 Trillion

   Australia - $1.2 Trillion

   Philippines - $0.3 Trillion

That's a combined total of $54.4 Trillion!

Now, let's take a look at Communist China and her lone ally:

   Communist China - $11.4 Trillion

   North Korea - $0.0 Trillion

That's an almost 5:1 advantage for the Western World!

So tell me again about the Economic Power of Communist China...

China's Spratlys reclamations: Trump's Cuban Missile Crisis?

UPDATE (23 JULY 2020)

This is now starting to emerge as incumbent President Donald Trump's moment of Truth.

The geopolitical variables have remained the same. Only the POTUS is different.

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For 13 days in 1962, the whole world held its breath while the US physically confronted and prevented the Soviet Union from installing nuclear missiles in Cuba.

Realizing their obvious disadvantage in an all-out nuclear shoot-out with the US, the Soviets wisely backed-off.

While the event had a happy ending, its repercussions are still being debated to this day. Did it cause the subsequent assassination of JFK at Dallas in 1963?  Did it also cause the ouster of Nikita Kruschev in 1964?

Today, China is slowly pushing the US to the same corner in 1962.  She refuses to stop her military occupation of the Spratlys.  And just like Cuba, it would be unthinkable for the US to give up control of the Spratlys to another major power.  

So Obama's end game for this crisis is already quite obvious.  Eventually, he will have to impose a naval blockade on the Spratlys.  And simultaneously, he will have to put the entire US Military on red alert - just in case China decides to up the ante.

China will initially whine and cry foul.  But the Chinese have always been known as a practical people.  Clearly, their current capabilities vis-a-vis nuclear war against the US are even worse than the Soviets' in 1962.  So cooler heads will ultimately prevail in Beijing.  And China's Spratlys (mis)adventure, just like the Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba, will be relegated to the dustbin of history.

Will a Chinese debacle in the Spratlys lead to the ouster of Xi Jinping? 

Will it lead to the overthrow of the Communist Party?

Will it lead to the independence of Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Tibet, Manchuria, Xinjiang and Outer Mongolia?

US Naval and Aerial Blockade - the only way to peacefully eject Communist China from the Spratlys

UPDATE (21 JUL 2020)

Uncle Sam just made an abrupt official policy shift and declared that Beijing's fake islands in the West Philippine Sea are "illegal". Analysts are of the opinion that this move opens the legal floodgates to a potential military intervention.

Logically, Uncle Sam's next step would be an aerial and naval blockade of one of Beijing's fake islands. Say, Mischief Reef.

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UPDATE (16 JAN 2017)

There is a new POTUS. And it appears that his administration agrees in principle that Communist China must be kicked out of the West Philippine Sea with whatever means necessary.

Unfortunately, the National Government of the Philippines is now overtly pro-Communist China.

So once again, Uncle Sam might have to do this on his own. But despite the Communist Chinese loyalties of the incumbent Philippine National Government, there will still be millions of Filipinos who will be eternally grateful.

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UPDATE (24 FEB 2016):

Since the last update of this post, Communist China had done the following:

1. Flew civilian tourists to the Spratlys;
2. Deployed SAMs to the Paracels; and
3. Deployed combat aircraft to the Paracels.

Obviously, these are "cabbage leaves" designed to wrap the competition into submission.

It is time for Uncle Sam to get tough with Communist China.

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UPDATE (07 JAN 2016):

This article was originally written about eight (8) months ago.

Since then, Uncle Sam had conducted several "Freedom of Navigation" maneuvers in the area.

Did it deliver the desired effect?

Judging by the fact that Communist China is now flying aircraft to and from Fiery Cross Reef... Hell, no!

It is time for Uncle Sam to up the ante...

Impose a naval and aerial blockade on any permanent foreign presence in the section of the Spratlys which is within the 200-mile EEZ of the Philippines!

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ORIGINAL ARTICLE (18 APR 2015):

Based on the latest media reports, China is now constructing two (2) runways in the Spratlys.  This is being accomplished by destroying 500 acres of live coral reefs.

In all likelihood, they will also construct a third runway at Mischief Reef.  And this reef is only 130 miles from the shores of the Philippines (roughly the same distance from New York City to Wilmington, Delaware).

Once these runways are operational, Beijing's logical next step would be to declare an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the entire Spratlys.  And then, she will impose a naval blockade to prevent all other claimants from entering the area.  This will starve-out the civilian settlements and military garrisons of the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan.  The West Philippine Sea and the South China Sea will then effectively become just mere backyard ponds in Beijing's growing empire. This is a textbook implementation of the Chinese Cabbage Strategy.

But this ominous development can still be stopped dead on its tracks.  The US can jump the gun on Beijing's impending aerial and naval blockade of the territory by imposing an aerial and naval blockade of its own - using the pretext of keeping international sea lanes open, as well as protecting the marine environment from further wanton destruction.

The Philippine Government can fire the opening salvo for this move by executing a formal written request for US intervention to the American People.

The million-dollar question then would be on how Beijing would react to this move.  Will she dare go to war (and certain naval humiliation) in the defense of her fraudulent Nine-Dash Line claim?  I don't think so.

And even if she does, it is always better to fight a half-prepared adversary than a fully-prepared one.

Once those runways are in place, the casualty count (and ergo the potential for a much wider conflagration) would be much higher.

The time to act is NOW!!!

  

The two "Ramos" Presidents of the Philippines

What can a $10B annual defense budget buy and maintain?

We do not have to resort to fanboyism to answer this question. We have an actual living breathing example - the Republic of Singapore. Singapore's annual defense budget is about $10B.

So how much military muscle does Singapore pack for territorial defense? Here we go:

6 diesel attack submarines

6 guided missile frigates

6 guided missile corvettes

40 F-15 Eagles

60 F-16 Fighting Falcons

17 AH-64 Apaches

196 Leopard main battle tanks

18 HIMARS self-propelled rocket artillery

48 SSPH-1 self-propelled conventional artillery

Now, if the Philippines have the same amount of firepower, ask yourself these questions:

Would Communist China have dared seize and build a military installation on Mischief Reef?

Would Communist China have dared seize Panatag Shoal?

Noynoy was Right

A few years ago, former Philippine President Noynoy Aquino created quite a diplomatic stir when he publicly compared Xi Jinping to Adolf Hitler. It is now turning out Noynoy was right. Xi Jinping has maneuvered himself to become President-for-Life of Communist China.

There is no more doubt. We are facing an imperialist despot in our western borders. And unless we make a life-or-death stand for Our Republic's survival, the Philippines will become the first cornerstone in Xi Jinping's own 1,000-year reich.

Let us strengthen the territorial defense capabilities of our Armed Forces to address this threat. To enshrine this measure in our national policy, our legislative bodies should pass a law pegging our annual defense budget at 3% of GDP. This would amount to about $10B annually.

The Education Budget-based cap on our national defense spending should also be removed through legislative action.

The Maldives Crisis: a blueprint for confronting Communist Chinese military adventurism

It seems that Beijing's much self-publicized 11-ship Maldives Intervention Force quickly evaporated into thin air. Beijing might be greedy but Beijing is not stupid. The Indian Navy by its lonesome would quickly make mincemeat out of Beijing's seriously outgunned fleet. And Beijing still has to contend with the possible intervention of other Western navies, covert or otherwise.

This should bring a groundswell of hope to the small SEA countries that Beijing is currently trying to bully into submission - the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Beijing can be made to back down. The key is Superior Firepower.

India's investment in a substantial annual defense budget clearly paid off. Vietnam and Indonesia appears to be following the same strategy.

Only the Philippines is being left behind.

Is it because of lack of funds... or is it because of lack of Love of Country?

Big Trouble in Little Maldives

According to published accounts, an 11-ship flotilla of Communist China's PLA Navy is on their way to the Maldives to help discourage an Indian military intervention in the political crisis currently engulfing the islands. A handful of Guided Missile Destroyers and Guided Missile Frigates substantially account for the long-range punch of this small fleet. Of course, it would be naive to believe that Communist China's silent service did not tag along for the ride too. A pair of nuclear attack submarines is probably shadowing the fleet.

By contrast, here's what India can muster:

1 Aircraft Carrier

1 Akula Nuclear Attack Sub

1 Nuclear Ballistic Sub

14 Diesel Attack Subs

11 Guided Missile Destroyers

9 Guided Missile Frigates

The potential area of conflict is also well within range of the land-based combat aircraft of the Indian Air Force.

But I wouldn't be surprised if, by this time, Beijing has already forward-deployed its own combat aircraft on the Maldives itself.

Nevertheless, the tactical balance of power is still overwhelmingly on the side of India. So it would be safe to assume that Beijing's little fleet will end up in Barnacle Land should it try to interfere with any Indian military deployment in the Maldives.

But that would only be the opening salvo. Beijing can quickly retaliate with a land attack on the northern territories of India.

The outcome of this impending confrontation might well decide Beijing's military adventurism in the Western Pacific.

If India blinks and let Beijing have her way in the Maldives, Beijing will surely be more emboldened in muscling her way into the territories of her Western Pacific neighbors.

But if Beijing's Maldives military adventure ends up in a catastrophe, the ensuing political fall-out might force the Communist Party to once again look inward for the better of the next few decades.

This will be buy time for frontline countries like the Philippines and Indonesia in strengthening their respective militaries.

The Philippine President has balls of Steel...

 

Nagging questions on Benham Rise

The series of events:

1. Philippine Department of National Defense (DND) Secretary Lorenzana publicly complained of the suspicious long presence of Communist Chinese ships at Benham Rise.

2. Philippine President Duterte said that he personally gave Communist China permission to conduct surveys at Benham Rise (apparently without DND Secretary Lorenzana's knowledge).

3. According to DND Secretary Lorenzana, Communist China appears to be looking for possible deployment locations for their submarines.

3. Philippine Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice (and recent Presidential Adviser) Carpio said that Benham Rise is not Philippine territory (Why on earth would he say that?).

4. Philippine Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice (and recent Presidential Adviser) Carpio said that other countries have the legal right to park their submarines within another country's Exclusive Economic Zone (Again, why on earth would he say that? And, it appears that he is wrong. The Exclusive Economic Zone sovereign rights holder has the exclusive right to establish installations on it.).

5. Philippine President Duterte ordered the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to construct permanent structures at Benham Rise.

The nagging questions:

1. Why would the President of a country go out of his way to accomodate the unusual request of another country which is currently actively grabbing other territories of his own country?

2. Did the Duterte Administration just secretly agreed to grant underwater submarine basing rights to Communist China at Benham Rise?

3. Is the publicized construction of AFP facilities at Benham Rise just a smokescreen for Communist China's own construction of underwater submarine facilities?

4. Is the Duterte Administration conscious of the fact that Benham Rise could be used as a base for Communist Chinese submarines (aka "Boomers") armed with intercontinental ballistic nuclear missiles aimed at military and civilian targets in  the Continental US (and would, therefore, be guaranteed to invite US retaliation)?

The UNCLOS decison is a game changer...

 

The AFP needs a slingshot in the West Philippine Sea

 

Support Hong Kong independence!

 

Communist China's "Poison Pill" defense in the West Philippine Sea

Communist China recently announced that she has developed a portable nuclear reactor. Then she proclaimed to the whole world that she is planning to install them on all her Fake Islands in the West Philippine Sea. The official justification given was to meet the energy needs of these Fake Islands. But I think she has more sinister plans in mind.

 

You see, despite the much-publicized modernization the Communist Chinese Military had undergone, Uncle Sam can easily vaporize with stand-off firepower the facilities installed by Communist China on these Fake Islands within minutes of any military conflict.

 

The presence of nuclear materials on each island would complicate this. One wayward ordnance could release lethal nuclear radiation in the surrounding seas. And poison marine life for years to come. Think of a man-made Fukushima multiplied 20 times!

 

So instead of just placing stand-off ordnance cross-hairs on these Fake Islands, Uncle Sam will have to take them out one-by-one with ground troops.

 

But even that approach could not guarantee the avoidance of "nuclear incidents". Communist China can easily install self-destruct charges on these portable nuclear plants. And turn each one of them into a "dirty-bomb-in-waiting".

 

And judging by the degree of callousness Communist China had shown in destroying all those marine life in the Spratlys in the pursuit of her fraudulent Nine-Dash Line claim, she certainly had it in her to commit this dastardly act. 

 

Is Communist China upstaging the US in the West Philippine Sea?

I just saw an article by the Wall Street Journal claiming that Communist China has upstaged the US in the WPS.

 

For the record, I think the main obstacle to US Military Action against Communist China in the WPS is Wall Street. Which, understandably, wants to protect its investments in Communist China at all cost. No investor in his right mind would exchange a multi-trillion dollar portfolio for a bunch of uninhabited islets, shoals and reefs in the middle of nowhere.

Beijing knows this too. That's why she is brazenly doing what she is doing now, notwithstanding the overwhelming firepower of the US Military she is facing.

Communist China is not upstaging the US in the WPS, she is just taking advantage of the Economic Interests of America's 1%!

But how long will this Economic Interest Umbrella last? You and I know that it can be trounced overnight by adverse American Public Opinion. And the way I see it, all that is missing now is that teenie-weenie spark that will propel adverse American Public Opinion to heights that would justify US Military Action.

Just remember, before Pearl Harbor, the Empire of Japan was seemingly upstaging the US all over the Western Pacific too.

Tick-tock... Tick-tock...

Remembering Bataan

Today, April 9, is Bataan Day.

Let us all take a moment of silence to remember our relatives and their brothers-in-arms who gave everything they had in the Defense of Liberty.

War is hell... but losing one is the worst fate of all.

Let us all bear this in mind as the prospect of war with Communist China grows stronger everyday. Never again should we allow a hostile foreign power occupy our shores!

Interestingly, we are now on the same side as our old WWII nemesis, the Japanese.

Which just goes to show that in geopolitics, there are no permanent friends or enemies...

Only permanent interests.

 

The Sunnylands US-ASEAN Summit was a resounding success, but we might need a WESPACTO...

Despite what some pundits might have said, the recently-concluded Sunnylands US-ASEAN Summit was a resounding diplomatic success for the Obama Administration vis-a-vis Communist China. Just read the full text of the Sunnylands Joint Declaration presented below.  One does not have to be a rocket scientist to immediately recognize that Statement Nos. 6 to 8 are specifically directed against Communist China.

At the same time, however, one also realizes that the Sunnylands Joint Declaration is already the best that ASEAN can do. Although ASEAN was created partly because of the collective fear of Chinese Communism, it has evolved through the years as a socio-economic organization, and not a security one.

In the 1960s, Communist China was just carrying the Big Stick of Communism. Now it is carrying both the Big Stick of Communism, as well as the Big Carrot of Economic Develepment. And among the 10 members of ASEAN, only five (5) are currently threatened by the Big Stick of Communist China. It is a tribute to the diplomatic efforts of the Obama Administration that the remaining five (5) also went along with the Sunnylands Joint Declaration. But it is understandable if they will refuse to go any further, specially if it will involve potential military confrontations with Communist China. The upside is not just there for them.

So what is needed now is a defense-oriented version of ASEAN. Something similar to the now-defunct SEATO.

And the obvious members of this new defense organization would be the US, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, Japan and Australia.

And here is a possible name: Western Pacific Treaty Organization (WESPACTO)

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February 16, 2016

Joint Statement of the U.S.-ASEAN Special Leaders’ Summit: Sunnylands Declaration

Sunnylands, California

February 15-16, 2016

We the Heads of State/Government of the Member States of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the United States of America gathered in Sunnylands, California, on February 15-16, 2016, for a Special Leaders Summit.  This Special U.S.-ASEAN Leaders Summit was the first ever to be held in the United States and the very first Summit following the establishment of the ASEAN Community.

The Summit marked a watershed year for both ASEAN and for the increasingly close U.S-ASEAN. strategic partnership. In 2015, ASEAN Member States celebrated the establishment of the ASEAN Community, working together toward an ASEAN that better serves the people of Southeast Asia.

At our Summit in Kuala Lumpur in November 2015, we elevated the U.S.-ASEAN relationship to a strategic partnership, recognizing the transformation of our relationship over the past several years. On the occasion of this Special Summit, we the Heads of State/Government of the Member States of ASEAN and the United States of America take this opportunity to reaffirm the key principles that will guide our cooperation going forward:

1.    Mutual respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, equality and political independence of all nations by firmly upholding the principles and purposes of the Charter of the United Nations, the ASEAN Charter and international law;

2.    The importance of shared prosperity, sustainable, inclusive economic growth and development, and the nurturing of our young people to sustain continued peace, development, and stability for mutual benefit;

3.   Mutual recognition of the importance of pursuing policies that lead to dynamic, open, and competitive economies that foster economic growth, job creation, innovation, entrepreneurship and connectivity, and that support SMEs and narrow the development gap;

4.   Our commitment to ensure opportunities for all of our peoples, through strengthening democracy, enhancing good governance and adherence to the rule of law, promoting and protecting human rights and fundamental freedoms, encouraging the promotion of tolerance and moderation, and protecting the environment;

5.   Respect and support for ASEAN Centrality and ASEAN-led mechanisms in the evolving regional architecture of the Asia-Pacific;

6.   Firm adherence to a rules-based regional and international order that upholds and protects the rights and privileges of all states;

7.   Shared commitment to peaceful resolution of disputes, including full respect for legal and diplomatic processes, without resorting to the threat or use of force in accordance with universally recognized principles of international law and the 1982 United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS);

8.   Shared commitment to maintain peace, security and stability in the region, ensuring maritime security and safety, including the rights of freedom of navigation and overflight and other lawful uses of the seas, and unimpeded lawful maritime commerce as described in the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as well as non-militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of activities;

9.   Shared commitment to promote cooperation to address common challenges in the maritime domain;

10.   Strong resolve to lead on global issues such as terrorism and violent extremism, trafficking in persons, drug trafficking, and illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, as well as illicit trafficking of wildlife and timber;

11.   Shared commitment to addressing climate change and developing a climate-resilient, environmentally sustainable ASEAN, as well as to implement individual countries’ nationally determined contributions made under the Paris Climate Agreement;

12.   Shared commitment to promote security and stability in cyberspace consistent with norms of responsible state behavior;

13.   Support for the advancement of a strong, stable, politically cohesive, economically integrated, socially responsible, people-oriented, people-centered and rules-based ASEAN Community;

14.   Shared commitment to strengthen people-to-people connectivity through programs that engage ASEAN and American citizens, particularly young people, and that promote opportunities for all our peoples, particularly the most vulnerable, to fulfil the vision of the ASEAN Community;

15.   Shared commitment to promote a global partnership for sustainable development through the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Addis Ababa Action Agenda, to ensure a sustainable, equitable and inclusive society where no one is left behind;

16.    Shared commitment to enhance collaboration at international and regional fora, especially at existing ASEAN-led mechanisms; and

17.    Shared commitment to continue political dialogue at the Head of State/Government level through our Leaders’ attendance at the annual U.S.-ASEAN Summit and the East Asia Summit.

I have a Dream...

 

Revive SEATO at the US-ASEAN Summit!!!

For the first time in history, the US will host a summit with ASEAN starting tomorrow, February 15, 2016.

The summit will be held at the same California venue where POTUS once hosted Communist China's Xi Jinping.

The subliminal message is quite clear. To Uncle Sam, the 10-country ASEAN has now the same geopolitical value as Communist China!

What should be the focus of this historic summit?

The TPP should be one.

Certainly not human rights. A significant number of ASEAN's Heads-of-State have skeletons in their human rights closet.

Communist China's fake islands in the Spratlys should be another.

But POTUS can really make this summit an earth-shaking event if he will be able to plant the seeds for the revival of SEATO, the Cold War SEA equivalent of NATO.

Some ASEAN members, like Cambodia, will surely refuse to join for obvious reasons.

But the great majority of ASEAN are now in the right mood to join a regional defense alliance.

After all, the Communist China they are now facing is more powerful and more aggressive than the one they faced during the Cold War.

The only difference is that, this time, the whole of Vietnam are on the side of the Good Guys.

Uncle Sam is the goose that lays the Golden Eggs for the Philippines

The 1st Golden Egg

The estimated number of Filipinos currently residing in the US is about 3 Million. They account for about 43% of the total inward FOREX remittances to the Philippines. In 2014, this amounted to about $10.4 Billion.

The 2nd Golden Egg

The Philippines has become the primary destination of the BPO business of English-speaking America. The annual revenue being generated by the Philippine BPO Industry is now about $25 Billion.

The 3rd Golden Egg

Since the Panatag Shoal Crisis in mid-2012, we are witness to the steady stream of US military hardware in our Country - guided missile warships, nuclear submarines, etc. These equipment are not cheap. And we need them to keep Communist China at bay. If we acquire and operate them ourselves, I would conservatively estimate the annual cost as no lower than $10 Billion.

Conclusion

Based on the foregoing, it appears that the Golden Eggs which our goose Uncle Sam lays for us are currently worth about $45 Billion per annum.

One does not have to be a genius to figure out that if something bad happens to Uncle Sam's economy, there will be a corresponding reduction in the value of the Philippines' annual Golden Egg windfall.

So whenever the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) needs to buy something, it should always try to buy American first.

And this is particularly true in our military purchases.

Because the US Defense Industry is a major pillar of the US Economy.