Is it time to form a MAPHILINDO Anti-NINE-DASH-LINE Alliance?

Before there was ASEAN... there was MAPHILINDO (Bung Karno, post-WWII)...

Before there was MAPHILINDO... there was Malaya Irredenta (Wenceslao Q. Vinzons, pre-WWII)...

The Core Group of ASEAN is really Malaya Irredenta...

In case you have not noticed... 4 of the 5 contra-Beijing claimants in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) are Malaya Irredenta countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei)... if Beijing succeeds in grabbing everything within its fraudulent Nine-Dash Line... the biggest loser would be Malaya Irredenta...

This the main reason why non-WPS Claimant ASEAN members have difficulty taking a much stronger anti-Beijing stance on this issue... they are not direct stakeholders...

So in case non-WPS Claimant ASEAN will continue to hew and haw about Beijing's imperialist territorial grab in the WPS... the best next course of action would be to form an Anti-Nine-Dash Line Alliance composed of the 4 Malaya Irredenta countries... plus Vietnam...

For neutrality, and lower susceptibility to Beijing's economic muscle (remember the Phnom Penh fiasco?), the Alliance HQ should be based in Brunei...

Does the Name "West Philippine Sea" Have Any Cartographic Basis?

European cartographers named the sea south of China and west of the Philippines as "South China Sea"... while they named the sea east of the Philippines as "Philippine Sea"...

it appears that the choice of "South China Sea" was a matter of cartographic convenience (i.e. to simplify navigational directions) rather than an acknowledgement of China's control over the sea... as Beijing now would want the world to believe...

since "Philippine Sea" already exists as a cartographic reference (the two Battles of the Philippine Sea in WWII are now considered as some of if not the biggest naval battles in history)... it is not a big leap to rename the sea to the west of the Philippines as "West Philippine Sea"... and the sea to the east of the Philippines as "East Philippine Sea"...

and the whole world would probably welcome this change... because unlike Beijing... Manila will never have the temerity to claim the entire territory covered by these seas as its own... except for those areas that it is entitled to claim under international law...

The Real Basis of Beijing's Nine-Dash Line

The first full-time military garrison in the Paracels and the Spratlys was established by France in 1933...

When WWII officially broke out in 1939, Axis-member Japan grabbed these islands from France and used them as submarine bases...

After Japan's surrender in 1945, the Republic of China (now officially known as Taiwan) attempted to take over Japanese control over the islands under the rationale that Japan used to administer the islands together with Taiwan as a single political entity during WWII... this explains why the now-infamous "Nine-Dash Line" was first mentioned in 1947...

In substance, therefore, Beijing's (and Taiwan's) claim on the Paracels and Spratlys is based on the Japanese conquest of the islands (from France) in 1939... and not on the historical jurisdiction exercised by certain ancient Chinese dynasties dating back to thousands of years ago... this explains why authentic old Chinese maps always show Hainan Island as the southernmost territory of Imperial China...

This is a historical fact which Beijing will find very hard to swallow... so expect the Orwellian tra-la-la pronouncements to continue..

The Death of ASEAN

the ease with which Beijing was able to employ "divide et empira" tactics against ASEAN in the recently-concluded Phnom Penh Summit may be an indication that the Organization has already outlived its original purpose... it was originally conceived as a bulwark against communist expansionism in SE Asia at the height of the Cold War in the mid-60s... the Cold War and communism... are long dead...

former communist bedfellows Beijing and Hanoi are now sworn adversaries... and are just one sneeze away from another shooting war... judging by its behavior during the Summit, Thailand is in the process of going to bed with Beijing...  Cambodia, on the other hand, is seemingly suffering from a severe case of "Killing Fields Amnesia"... and is back in the arms of the Killing Fields Sponsor...

with the threat of communism gone... ASEAN has recently re-focused its efforts towards economic targets... maybe one day... a common market... or even a common currency... the EU of SE Asia...

but Beijing will not just stand idly by and let 600 million SEA people build an economic empire that could rival its own... while the short-term impetus for Beijing's belligerent acts in the WPS (West Philippine Sea) appears to be territorial gain... i suspect that there is something more to it than what meets the eye... it is maybe part and parcel of a grand strategy to stop the formation of an ASEAN Common Market dead on its tracks... and by all appearances, Beijing was able to accomplish that at Phnom Penh...

with Cambodia and Thailand now perceived, rightly or wrongly, as the stalking horses of Beijing in ASEAN... any effort to obtain the support of the Organization on measures that have an anti-Bejing smell will be presumed as doomed to fail...  and ASEAN members like the Philippines and Vietnam, who have serious territorial disputes with Beijing, will have to look for support elsewhere...

one option is to form a new defense-oriented regional organization of SEA countries which have direct territorial disputes with Beijing...  this would include the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia... with a combined population of about 450 million... this organization will have more manpower than the US of A... and if properly equipped with the latest weaponry... will be a formidable force to be reckoned with...

Unstoppable Beijing Guided Missile Frigate Meets an Immovable West Philippine Sea Rock

Philippine media is now abuzz with the news that a PLAN guided-missile frigate has accidentally grounded itself into Hasa-Hasa Shoal about 2 days ago... while conducting patrols in Philippine waters...

the ship in question is probably the Dongguan (Hull No. 560)... a Jianghu V-class frigate... which normally carries eight (8) NORINCO YJ-83 SSMs in two (2) four-box launchers...

since this is a fairly inexpensive export-class ship (Egypt, Thailand, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar also operate them)... which only costs about USD100M new... we should not discount the possibility that this was a deliberate act... that would provide the pretext for Beijing to occupy Hasa-Hasa Shoal...

the Philippine Military should investigate this matter immediately... and, if possible, subject the warship to the applicable international salvaging laws...

Cambodia: Hun Sen the Over-Staying Survivor

by now, everyone has realized that the recent ASEAN Summit was a diplomatic coup for Beijing... even Mrs. Clinton proved no match to the duplicitous minions of Hun Sen... for the first time in its history, ASEAN failed to issue a joint communique after a formal summit... all because of the Beijing-orchestrated machinations of an upstart member... which was only accepted to the organization barely 13 years ago... thanks and no thanks Mr. Hun Sen...

but it was not really surprising move... the man is a time-tested survivor... he was with the original Beijing Cambodian Stooge, the Khmer Rouge, when they were winning... then he went over to the Vietnamese side when they were winning... then he went to bed with... and then launched a coup against Prince Norodom Ranariddh... and now he is back in Beijing's arms... this man changes spots more often than a snow leopard...

but his recent betrayal of the West Philippine Sea interests of fellow ASEAN members the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei has a silver lining... it brought him back to the center stage of world opinion... and the first thing that the world will probably say is: "oh my! we didn't realize he is still there!"...

it is time for regime change in Cambodia...

otherwise, this ASEAN Domino will fall again...

and the "Killing Fields" will once again harvest millions of Cambodian lives...

Of Mosquitoes and Dragons

"Compared to the Chinese Dragon, the Philippines is just a Mosquito" said a prominent Philippine Senator (Miriam Defensor-Santiago)...

This got me thinking, "is Beijing is really a Dragon?"... in the five-animal style of Chinese martial arts... the Tiger relies on strength (doer)... the Snake on technical precision (thinker)... the Crane on evasion (feeler)... and the Leopard on cunning (dreamer)... once a martial artist has the ability to select accurately and apply effectively any of the aforementioned animal styles to a particular situation... then he becomes a Dragon... 

Beijing's recent behavior in the West Philippine Sea cannot be associated with someone who is already a Dragon... it is more of a Tiger behavior... which is basically relying on brute strength to get what you want...

The one who behaves like a true Dragon is Uncle Sam... which, depending on the situation, will act like... a Tiger (Desert Shield)... a Snake (Predator strikes)... a Crane (Mrs. Clinton)... or a Leopard (SEAL Teams)...

How about the Philippines?...

Initially, i was a bit offended by the "Mosquito" tag... but after some serious thought, i said to myself: "why not?"... after all, i doubt if there is any other animal on earth that can match the human body count of a Mosquito... 

How many humans have Tigers killed in the last two millenia?...  a few thousands would probably be tops... how about Dragons?... i won't even dare speculate... 

But Mosquitoes... just say... Yellow Fever... Malaria... Dengue... and it could easily run into the hundreds of millions... maybe even more than a billion...

So take heart fellow Filipinos... we may be a Mosquito to Beijing's Tiger... but it will only take one bite from our Mosquito... to fatally infect Beijing's Tiger with an incurable pathogen...

And by the looks of it... Beijing is already infected... with the pathogen of... GREED...

Unhappy Warrior (inquirer.net)

Unhappy warrior

the author of this article got it all mixed up... the Philippine Military Establishment is currently seething at the humiliating international exposure of the sorry state of our armed forces... courtesy of Beijing's belligerent acts at Panatag Shoal and elsewhere in the West Philippine Sea... this was further aggravated by the ill-advised pull-out of our ships from Panatag Shoal... this is a cry for help from the Philippine Military Establishment to the civilian government of the country... to give them the means to defend the Republic from external threats... regardless of who it may be... but it seems the cry is falling on deaf ears...

Is it Time to Revive SEATO?

it seems that Beijing is visibly irked with the perceived "interference" of ASEAN in the on-going West Philippine Sea disputes... a Bejing Foreign Ministry spokesman was recently quoted as saying: "this South China Sea issue is not an issue between China and ASEAN, but between China and some ASEAN countries... hyping the South China Sea issue is against the common aspirations of the people and the main trends of the time to seek development and cooperation, and is an attempt to take China-ASEAN relations hostage."

surprisingly, i tend to agree with Beijing... because only a handful of ASEAN countries are directly embroiled in territorial disputes with Beijing.... the rest of ASEAN will have minimal motivation to rub the wrong way the 3rd largest economy in the world (EU is first, the US is second)...

perhaps it is time to create a new regional organization that is custom-tailored to address head-on the escalating military belligerence of Beijing in the West Philippine Sea... an organization built along the same lines as NATO... this is not really a new concept because there used to be a NATO clone in SE Asia... its name was SEATO (Southeast Asia Treaty Organization)... but these are now different times... not all of SE Asia is poised for a military showdown with Beijing... and non-SEA countries like Japan, Taiwan and South Korea will logically have to be invited into this organization to ensure that it will have a respectable military muscle even if Uncle Sam is not in the neighborhood... so recycling SEATO as the name of the organization might no longer be a viable option... it's time to come up with a new name... Pacific Treaty Organization or PATO sounds like a more credible name... besides, PATO is the local term for "duck" in most Philippine dialects... so if war breaks out between Beijing  and PATO... Filipino pundits can easily call it the Peking-Duck War...

The New Domino Theory

The "Domino Theory" was a geopolitical concept during the Cold War... that postulated that if one state in a region came under the control of Communism, the surrounding states would follow in a falling domino effect...

Dwight Eisenhower is the acknowledged father of the theory... when he mentioned the "falling domino" phenomenon in a speech describing the geopolitical conditions in SE Asia in 1954...

Today, the Damocles Sword of the "Domino Theory" is once again hanging over the heads of the peoples of SE Asia... this time the "dominoes" are not the individual states of the Region... but the islands, islets, reefs and shoals of the West Philippine Sea... the Domino Toppler, however, is still the same... Beijing...

This time, Beijing's primary weapon is no longer the Little Red Book of Chairman Mao... but real weapons for real wars... destroyers, nuclear submarines, stealth aircraft, and aircraft carriers...  backed by a Very Fat Checkbook...

Beijing now not only comes carrying a Big Stick... but to the delight of corrupt national leaders all over the world, with a Very Big Carrot as well...

Gone were the days of "you have nothing to lose but your chains and bonds"... "the meek shall inherit the earth but not its mineral rights" is now the new battlecry of Beijing...

The first Philippine domino fell when we lost Mischief Reef... now the second domino, Panatag Shoal, is also about to fall... next will probably be Recto Bank... then Pag-asa Island... and then... what will stop Beijing from grabbing Palawan?

Or even the Entire Country?

American Right to PNoy: Send Back Ships to Panatag Shoal

according to the Philippine Star, The Heritage Foundation had just issued a statement urging Malacanang to send back ships to Panatag Shoal... to those not in the know, The Heritage Foundation is known as one of the unofficial mouthpieces of the American Right... the Foundation's statement was quite strong... “If allowed to stand, the current turn in the situation – that is, the Chinese left alone to represent its sovereignty claim in Scarborough (or Panatag Shoal as it is referred to by Manila) – is a defeat for both the Philippines and the US...”  and here's more... "Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s participation in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meetings in Cambodia this week was a prime opportunity for the US to let China and Southeast Asia know that it will not allow this one-sided bargain to stand.  It was also an opportunity for Clinton to reinforce the red line that the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty draws around the Philippines, its armed forces, and public vessels"... this is your cue to deploy back those ships PNoy... if Beijing touches even just the hair of our naval personnel... all hell will break loose...  

ASEAN wants UN law to settle West PHL Sea dispute (gmanetwork.com)

ASEAN wants UN law to settle West PHL Sea dispute

this is the most equitable way to settle these disputes... unfortunately, Beijing will probably end up losing all of its ridiculous territorial claims if it goes along with this proposal... so it is highly doubtful whether Beijing would be willing to play ball with ASEAN using UN Law... it will continue to insist in settling these issues in a bilateral manner... in which case, the next step for ASEAN would be to file a class-action case for arbitration with the proper UN-recognized judicial body... with or without Beijing... this will be a very, very big leap for ASEAN... and will likely determine its long-term viability as a regional geo-political force...