China's Spratlys reclamations: Trump's Cuban Missile Crisis?

UPDATE (23 JULY 2020)

This is now starting to emerge as incumbent President Donald Trump's moment of Truth.

The geopolitical variables have remained the same. Only the POTUS is different.

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For 13 days in 1962, the whole world held its breath while the US physically confronted and prevented the Soviet Union from installing nuclear missiles in Cuba.

Realizing their obvious disadvantage in an all-out nuclear shoot-out with the US, the Soviets wisely backed-off.

While the event had a happy ending, its repercussions are still being debated to this day. Did it cause the subsequent assassination of JFK at Dallas in 1963?  Did it also cause the ouster of Nikita Kruschev in 1964?

Today, China is slowly pushing the US to the same corner in 1962.  She refuses to stop her military occupation of the Spratlys.  And just like Cuba, it would be unthinkable for the US to give up control of the Spratlys to another major power.  

So Obama's end game for this crisis is already quite obvious.  Eventually, he will have to impose a naval blockade on the Spratlys.  And simultaneously, he will have to put the entire US Military on red alert - just in case China decides to up the ante.

China will initially whine and cry foul.  But the Chinese have always been known as a practical people.  Clearly, their current capabilities vis-a-vis nuclear war against the US are even worse than the Soviets' in 1962.  So cooler heads will ultimately prevail in Beijing.  And China's Spratlys (mis)adventure, just like the Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba, will be relegated to the dustbin of history.

Will a Chinese debacle in the Spratlys lead to the ouster of Xi Jinping? 

Will it lead to the overthrow of the Communist Party?

Will it lead to the independence of Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Tibet, Manchuria, Xinjiang and Outer Mongolia?

SITREP 2016 Feb 05 - Communist China Nine-Front War on the Western World Order

The Situation as of Friday, February 5, 2016:

1. European Security

a. Rand Corp. researchers say NATO will lose the Baltic Region within 36 hours in case of a Russian invasion.

b. UK and Germany urges the EU to do something about the influx of cheap steel from Communist China and Russia.

2. Middle Eastern Security

a. Talks are underway for a Syrian ceasefire.

b. Syrian Government troops have surrounded Syrian Rebels at Aleppo. Thousands of Syrian refugees flee to the Turkish border.

c. Saudi Arabia offers to send ground troops to Syria.

d. The leader of a coalition of Syrian rebel forces makes a multi-day visit to Beijing.

3. Asia-Pacific Trade

a. Hillary Clinton is now opposing the TPP.

b. Communist China will generate about $1.4 Trillion in exports from FTAAP.

4. Global Finance

a. Russia, the 3rd largest AIIB shareholder after Communist China and India, expects the bank to grant its first loan within six (6) months.

b. Communist China threatens to impose sanctions on offending US companies.

c. A group of Communist Chinese investors is negotiating to buy the Chicago Stock Exchange, in an obvious move to list more Communist Chinese stocks in the US stock market.

5. Global Currency

a. About 40% of Communist China-Africa trade are now Yuan-denominated.

b. Russia accepts Yuan as payment, becomes top exporter of crude oil to Communist China.

6. African Trade

a. 2015 Africa exports to Communist China down by 38%.

7. NE Asian Territories

a. Two (2) Communist Chinese fighters enter South Korea's ADIZ.

b. North Korea officially prepares to launch a long-range rocket carrying a satellite. But defense experts say this will really be a thinly-disguised ICBM test.

8. Western Pacific Security

a. US Sen. John McCain tells One America News (OAN) that, as told to him by the late Singapore PM Lee Kuan Yew, the ultimate aim of Communist China is to control the entire Western Pacific. In response to this threat, Sen. McCain is proposing that a second USN aircraft carrier should be permanently based in Japan.

b. USS Curtis Wilbur conducts FONOP within 12-miles of the Communist China-occupied Paracels, drawing virulent protests from Beijing.

c. RAAF patrols now being routinely challenged by Beijing in the South China Sea.

9. SE Asian Territories

a. The Philippine Legislature reverses its previous decision rejecting the AFP's proposed MRF Budget. The AFP will now have $210 Million for the purchase of MRFs in 2016.

b. The National Youth Movement for the West Philippine Sea (NYMWPS) Palawan, Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao is launched.

c. Communist China brings tourists for the first time to her fake island at Fiery Cross Reef. Beijing claims they were the wives and children of troops stationed on the fake island.

d. Communist China warns Filipino Students against a second visit to the Kalayaans.

e. Communist China starts cracking down on critics based overseas. She reportedly abducted several from Thailand and Myanmar (as well as Hongkong).

What the West Philippine Sea Blog is all about...

The purpose of this post is to set the record straight.

I have been getting online flak lately on the "credibility" of this Blog (whatever that means).

For the record, the West Philippine Sea Blog was created as a platform for "Online Return Fire" in response to the Communist Chinese Occupation of Panatag Shoal in mid-2012.

The sole purpose of this Blog's existence, therefore, is to attack the Global Interests of Communist China... Anytime... Anywhere... Anyhow... (and defend the Global Interests of the Philippines and her allies)...

Until Communist China abandons her Creeping Invasion of the West Philippine Sea!!!

Sorry, we have no $196 Million for MRFs...

SITREP 2016 JAN 02 - Communist China Nine-Front War on the Western World Order

The Situation as of Saturday, January 2, 2016:

1. European Security

a. Putin declares NATO a direct security threat to Russia.

b. NATO opposition forces Turkey to cancel its sophisticated missile defense system joint venture with Communist China.

2. Middle Eastern Security

a. Iranian Shiites attack and set fire to the Saudi Embassy in Tehran in retaliation for the Saudi execution of a Shiite cleric.

b. Communist China's State Media is promoting the country as the ideal "Mediator" for the Syrian Civil War.

3. Asia-Pacific Trade

a. University of Toronto economist claims that the TPP will make trade zone businesses more vulnerable to takeover by Communist Chinese firms.

4. Global Finance

a. The Philippines joins the Communist China-led AIIB (Asia Infrastructure and Investment Bank).

b. India is the last BRIC country standing. Brazil, Russia and Communist China are in economic dire straits.

5. Global Currency

a. Zimbabwe adopts the Yuan as its reserve currency after Communist China forgives its foreign debt.

6. African Trade

a. 2015 was a banner year for Africa-Communist China relations.

7. NE Asian Territories

a. Communist China wants to redraw its EEC boundaries with South Korea, at the latter's expense.

b. Communist China hints that it will expand its NE Asia island claims to include Okinawa. 

8. Western Pacific Security

a. Communist China is building a second aircraft carrier.

9. SE Asian Territories

a. Philippine youth group sails to and camps in Pag-asa Island, angering Communist China and Taiwan.

b. Communist China harasses the plane carrying a Philippine Air Force Chaplain to Pag-asa Island.

c. Communist China lands a plane for the first time on its artificial runway at Fiery Cross Reef, drawing angry protests from Vietnam.

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Original Post (at the Asymmetric Warfare Files blog):

The World Order War (WOW) can be divided into two (2) Sub-Wars - the Putin Russia Sub-War, and the Communist China Sub-War.

The Communist China Sub-War has currently Nine (9) Fronts:

1. European Security - Communist China wants to replace NATO with a  New World Security Organization (whatever that means);

2. Middle Eastern Security - Communist China establishes naval facilities at Djibouti to challenge Western Military Power in the Indian Ocean, Red Sea, and Mediterranean;

3. Asia-Pacific Trade - Communist China wants to establish the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) to rival the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP);

4. Global Finance - Communist China establishes the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to rival the Western- established International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB), and Asian Development Bank (ADB);

5. Global Currency - Communist China wants to replace the US Dollar with the Yuan as the primary International Currency;

6. African Trade -  Communist China wants to replace Western aid efforts in Africa with her own package of grants, loans, debt forgiveness, and student scholarships (which would encourage the African Student Elite to learn Chinese languge and culture);

7. Northeast Asian Territories - Communist China wants to replace the Western-established territorial boundaries  with her own "ancient historical boundaries" (again, whatever that means), and challenge Japanese Military Power in the process;

8. Western Pacific Security - Communist China establishes a Carrier-Based Naval Force to challenge US Military Power; and

9. Southeast Asian Territories - Communist China invades Philippine territory and manufactures fake islands to replace the Western-established territorial boundaries in the South China Sea with her own self-manufactured and clearly-fraudulent Nine-Dash Line, and challenge US Military Power in the process.

Take note that, of these Nine (9) Fronts, Communist China has been the most successful with respect to Front No. 9...

The Invasion of the Philippines.

SITREP 2015 DEC 20 - Communist China Nine-Front War on the Western World Order

The Situation as of Sunday, December 20, 2015:

1. European Security

a. Poland volunteers to assume responsibillity for the 200 B-61 US atomic bombs currently based in Germany.

b. NATO offers Alliance membership to Montenegro.

2. Middle Eastern Security

a. Communist China called for the close cooperation of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) member states in fighting security threats coming from the Islamic State (IS). SCO member countries include Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. India and Pakistan are expected to join SCO next year. Belarus, Afghanistan, Iran and Mongolia have observer status. Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Turkey and Nepal are dialogue partners.

b. Communist China supported the draft UNSC resolution for the peace process in Syria.

3. Asia-Pacific Trade

a. According to the US Defense Secretary, the TPP is as important as having another aircraft carrier.

4. Global Finance

a. Goldman Sachs closes its main BRIC (BRICS less South Africa) investment fund.

b. The Communist Chinese Yuan joins the US Dollar, Euro, UK Pound, and Japanese Yen as the official reserves of the world.

5. Global Currency

a. Communist China has a special military unit tasked solely with acquiring Gold for the country.

b. Communist China will launch a Yuan Gold Benchmark in April 2016.

6. African Trade

a. A Communist Chinese company will build a steel pipe plant in Nigeria.

b. Communist China and Kenya sign aid agreements.

7. NE Asian Territories

a. Japan will deploy ASMs, SAMs and thousands of additional troops on her islands in the East China Sea.

b. Communist China protests new US weapon sales to Taiwan.

8. Western Pacific Security

a. Japan and Australia re-affirm their opposition to any military build-up in the South China Sea.

b. US P-8 Poseidons conduct South China Sea patrols from Singapore.

9. SE Asian Territories

a. Communist China buys Russian SU-35s to patrol the South China Sea.

b. Philippine Congress rejects the proposed additional budget for the Country's acquisition of MRFs.

c. Deliberate destruction of corals and other marine life by Communist China in the Philippines' Kalayaan Island Group exposed.

d. US Pacific Fleet Commander warns of the possible use of force in settling territorial disputes in the region.

************************************************

Original Post (at the Asymmetric Warfare Files blog):

The World Order War (WOW) can be divided into two (2) Sub-Wars - the Putin Russia Sub-War, and the Communist China Sub-War.

The Communist China Sub-War has currently Nine (9) Fronts:

1. European Security - Communist China wants to replace NATO with a  New World Security Organization (whatever that means);

2. Middle Eastern Security - Communist China establishes naval facilities at Djibouti to challenge Western Military Power in the Indian Ocean, Red Sea, and Mediterranean;

3. Asia-Pacific Trade - Communist China wants to establish the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) to rival the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP);

4. Global Finance - Communist China establishes the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to rival the Western- established International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB), and Asian Development Bank (ADB);

5. Global Currency - Communist China wants to replace the US Dollar with the Yuan as the primary International Currency;

6. African Trade -  Communist China wants to replace Western aid efforts in Africa with her own package of grants, loans, debt forgiveness, and student scholarships (which would encourage the African Student Elite to learn Chinese languge and culture);

7. Northeast Asian Territories - Communist China wants to replace the Western-established territorial boundaries  with her own "ancient historical boundaries" (again, whatever that means), and challenge Japanese Military Power in the process;

8. Western Pacific Security - Communist China establishes a Carrier-Based Naval Force to challenge US Military Power; and

9. Southeast Asian Territories - Communist China invades Philippine territory and manufactures fake islands to replace the Western-established territorial boundaries in the South China Sea with her own self-manufactured and clearly-fraudulent Nine-Dash Line, and challenge US Military Power in the process.

Take note that, of these Nine (9) Fronts, Communist China has been the most successful with respect to Front No. 9...

The Invasion of the Philippines.

Welcome to WOW...

Communist China had just signed a 10-year basing agreement at Djibouti for the PLA Navy. This naval facility is literally right next to an air base which Uncle Sam is also currently leasing from Djibouti. Essentially, Communist China is preparing the groundwork for challenging US military supremacy in the Indian Ocean, the Horn of Africa, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the entire Middle East itself.

What are the implications of this development on our on-going territorial conflicts with Communist China in the West Philippine Sea? Read on:

1. Communist China's creeping invasion in the West Philippine Sea is not about some ancient historical claim. It is just a localized manifestation of the over-aching ambition of Communist China of replacing Our World Order with her own World Order.

Even if we win our UNCLOS case, therefore, expect Communist China to stay put on her fake islands in the Spratlys... Until we find some other way to kick her out!

2. Geographically, the entire world is the battleground of this World Order War (shall we call it WOW?). Battlefield losses of Our World Order in far-off lands (e.g. Syria) will also have adverse effects on our own West Philippine Sea battlefront.

Therefore, although the West Philippine Sea is the primary focus of our advocacy, we should always be ready to defend Our World Order. Anytime... Anywhere... Anyhow... Yes, even in Cyberspace!

3. This War will not only be fought Militarily. It will also be fought Politically and Financially.

In fact, if we can degrade the ability of Communist China to challenge Our World Order Financially and Politically, there might even be no need to bring out the Guns.

4. Just like the Cold War, we do not know how long WOW will last.

We will just have to continuously advance the interest of Our World Order financially, politically, and militarily...

Until the other side cries: No mas!

Welcome to WOW...

#WestPhilippineSea

#OccupyPanatagShoal

#NineDashLineFraud

#ChinaGoHome

#Spratlys

#WorldOrderWar

Why is Jokowi boycotting the APEC Meeting?

A few days ago, this blog raised an alarm on the rapid military build-up Jakarta is currently undertaking in the Natunas.

Yesterday, the possibility that Jakarta will file her own arbitration case against Beijing is all over the news.

Today, we just got this news that Jokowi (Indonesian President Joko Widodo) has decided not to attend next week's APEC Meeting in Manila.

Why?

I think Jakarta is not happy that Beijing's fraudulent Nine-Dash Line claim is not going to be officially included in the APEC Meeting agenda.

Manila foolishly gave-in to Beijing's wishes on the fraudulent Nine-Dash Line claim issue.

Jokowi's no-show performance is, therefore, maybe a snub on both Beijing and Manila.

What do you think?

Was "Palawan Shallows" another old name of the Spratlys?

In this map dated 1734, the Spratlys are labeled as "Paragua Vada"...

What is the English translation of the term?

I think it is "Paragua Shallows".

Or in modern terms... "Palawan Shallows".

Will someone who is an expert in the Spanish language please confirm or rebut  this...

But regardless of the accuracy of my translation, it clearly shows that the international community once considered the Spratlys as a part of Palawan...

And ergo... also a part of the Philippine Archipelago!!!

The Spratlys has an older Spanish name...

Above is a 1727 English map of the Philippine Islands... Take note that what appears to be the Spratly Islands off the coast of Palawan have already been named.  And it is not "Spratly"...

Richard Spratly would come into the picture more than 100 years later...

I cannot clearly read the old name of the Spratlys but it definitely appears to be Spanish.  In fact, the label "Spanish" appears right next to it.   

I think I am reading "Primero I." but someone with much sharper eyes could probably help me out on this.

Does this constitute prima facie evidence that the Spratlys are historically considered part of Las Islas Filipinas?

Take note that what is now the Philippine Sea is labeled as "Part of the Great South Sea"...

The "ancient and historical" (sarcasm definitely intended) South China Sea is nowhere to be found...

Treaty of Washington of 1900 (complete text)

Treaty Between the Kingdom Spain and the United States of America forCession of Outlying Islands of the Philippines [1900]*

ARTICLE

 

Relinquishment of islands to the United States.

 

The United States of America and Her Majesty the Queen Regent of Spain, in the name of Her August Son, Don Alfonso XIII, desiring to remove any ground of misunderstanding growing out of the interpretation of Article III of the Treaty of Peace concluded between them at Paris the tenth day of December, one thousand eight hundred and ninety eight, whereby Spain cedes to the United States the archipelago known as the Philippine Islands and comprehending the islands lying within certain described lines, and having resolved to conclude a Treaty to accomplish that end, have for that purpose appointed as their respective plenipotentiaries:

 

The President of the United States, John Hay, Secretary of State of the United States;

 

and Her Majesty the Queen Regent of Spain, the Duke de Arcos, Envoy Extraordinary and Minister Plenipotentiary of Spain to the United States;

 

who, having met in the city of Washington and having exchanged their full powers, which were found to be in due and proper form, have agreed upon the following sole article:

 

SOLE ARTICLE

Spain relinquishes to the United States all title and claim of title, which she may have had at the time of the conclusion of the Treaty of Peace of Paris, to any and all islands belonging to the Philippine Archipelago, lying outside the lines described in Article III of that Treaty and particularly to the islands of Cagayan, Sulu and Sibutu and their dependencies, and agrees that all such islands shall be comprehended in the cession of the Archipelago as fully as if they had been expressly included within those lines.

 

The United States, in consideration of this relinquishment, will pay to Spain the sum of one hundred thousand dollars ($100,000) within six months after the exchange of the ratifications of the present treaty.

 

The present treaty shall be ratified by the President of the United States, by and with the advice and consent of the Senate thereof, and by Her Majesty the Queen Regent of Spain, after approval by the Cortes of the Kingdom, and the ratifications shall be exchanged at Washington as soon as possible.

 

In faith whereof we, the respective Plenipotentiaries, have signed this Treaty and have hereunto affixed our seals.

 

Done in duplicate at the city of Washington, the 7^th day of November, in the year of Our Lord one thousand nine hundred.

 

JOHN HAY (SEAL)

ARCOS (SEAL)

 

Footnotes:

 

* The Philippine National Territory: A Collection of Documents, Raphael Perpetuo M. Lotilla, ed. (1995), at 38.

 

1. Sources: 31 US Stat. 1942; II Malloy 1696.

 

2. Concluded November 7, 1900; ratification advised by U.S. Senate January 22, 1901; ratified by the U.S. President January 30, 1901; ratifications exchanged March 23, 1901; proclaimed March 23, 1901.

 

 

Should the Philippines establish its own Submarine Force?

When Japan invaded the Philippines in WWII, in the Western Pacific, the Philippine submarine fleet was second only to Japan in terms of quantity, and was at par or even superior to Japan in terms of quality.  Unfortunately, faulty peace-time torpedoes blunted the effectivity of this force in resisting the Japanese invasion.

But they did admirably well in other areas.  After all, they successfully rescued Pres. Quezon and Gen. MacArthur from the humiliating fate of Japanese incarceration.

Since being granted independence in 1946, however, the Philippines appears to have forgotten this glorious submarine tradition.  Until now, no submarine force has been established for the Philippine Navy.

This was acceptable in the past when the mighty US Navy was still based at Subic. But not anymore.

We are now facing a creeping invasion by China in our western borders.  The enemy has already breached the gates.

We have already lost Mischief Reef and Scarborough Shoal.

So, now is maybe the right time to do some soul-searching as a people.  On whether or not we need to establish our own attack submarine force.

Just what can attack submarines do that  ordinary warships cannot?

Warships can be easily tracked by 

spy satellites and other aerial surveillance sysytems.  In the modern battlefield, therefore, they will seldom have the element of surprise on their side.

An attack submarine, on the other hand, is very hard to track once it reaches blue waters.  And they can be clandestinely pre-positioned in strategic locations far from their home country.

Thus, an attack submarine is the only weapon platform that can provide a credible long-range retaliatory strike capability to a financially-constrained country (like ours) against an aggressor with satellite surveillance and overwhelming first-strike capabilities (like China).

China, for example, can easily locate with her satellites and neutralize with a surprise first-strike all our warships (and fixed-wing aircraft).  But if we have an attack submarine force, some if not most of our subs, will be able to elude detection.  And live to fight another day.  Which is exactly what happened to the Philippine submarine fleet in WWII.

Thus, even a small country like the Philippines must establish her own attack submarine force.  Just to send a message to would-be invaders.  That we have the capability to retaliate against any form of military adventurism.

At times and places not of their own choosing.

Even in their own territorial waters...

The new face of the West Philippine Sea...

The West Philippine Sea is ours China!

Talk to Jasmine and she'll convince you why...

Filipino psy-war at its best...

Should the Philippines conduct its own Freedom of Navigation Operations?

In view of the success of the Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP) recently completed by the US Navy, certain sectors are now pressuring Malacanang to authorize the conduct of our own FONOPs.

And my response is: With what?

With the two (2) Hamiltons pictured above?

The success of the FONOP performed by the USS Lassen was primarily due to Overwhelming Firepower - something which our country clearly does not have. The USS Lassen, by its lonesome, packs more firepower than the entire Philippine Navy!

I'm sure Beijing is now seething with rage at the humiliation it recently suffered in the hands of the US Navy.  Logically, therefore, she will be looking for some kind of payback to redeem her honor.  Let us not provide her the opportunity by sending our severely outgunned Navymen in harm's way,

Besides, the UNCLOS case we filed is now progressing in our favor.  Any military adventurism on our part will just erode the moral high ground we have carefully nurtured in the course of our on-going disputes with China.

Of course, if we are requested to participate in a FONOP led by the US Navy, that is a totally different ballgame.

The response I would personally recommend to Malacanang would be: Yes!

The Spratlys are ours as per the Treaty of Washington

The Treaty of Washington of 1900 (the Treaty) was signed on November 7, 1900, and came into effect on March 23, 1901, when the Treaty ratifications were exchanged.  The Treaty sought to remove any ground of misunderstanding growing out of the interpretation of Article III of the 1898 Treaty of Paris by clarifying the specifics of territories relinquished to the US by Spain.

In consideration for certain explicit statement of relinquishments documented in the Treaty, the US agreed to pay to Spain the sum of one hundred thousand dollars ($100,000) within six (6) months after the exchange of Treaty ratifications. (Wikipedia)

News had just recently came out that the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) discovered that, under the explicit terms of the Treaty, the Spratlys are, in fact, part of the territories ceded by Spain to the US under the Treaty of Paris.  The GRP will present this newly-discovered information to UNCLOS as additional evidence to support her claim over the Spratlys (as well as other territories within her 200-mile EEZ).

This is a very major development on the Spratlys disputes.

The Philippines now have a legal basis to claim the entire Spratlys.  And the islands of the Spratlys can now be used as baselines to measure the territorial sea and EEZ boundaries of the Philippines.

More importantly, the US is now legally a former owner of the Spratlys, and the Spratlys are now legally part of the territories donated by the US to the GRP in 1946.

Should any third party (e.g. China) attempt to dispossess the GRP of such donation, the US will now have the legal basis to intervene.

With the full might of the US Military Establishment, if necessary.

Is this the real reason why the purchase of shore-based missiles from Israel was postponed?

I previously made a scathing post on the postponement of the Israeli shore-based missile acquisition in favor of infantry protective equipment... i am giving the AFP the benefit of the doubt in this post...

Based on the list of items to be purchased, the AFP appears to be preparing for some serious conventional warfare opposition... something which none of our internal threats are capable of...

Seriously, would you really need kevlar helmets, body armor, and NBC (Nuclear, Biological, Chemical) equipment against the MILF or the NPA?... of course, no...

The AFP is preparing for someone with a heavier punch... someone capable of inflicting heavy casualties on large infantry formations unprotected by kevlar helmets and body armor... someone with NBC capabilities...

Who else could that be, except... China!

In case a shooting war erupts in the Spratlys, Uncle Sam can easily provide the air and sea muscle... but will have limitations in providing a significant number of boots on the ground...

This is where the AFP comes in...

And based on the urgency by which these purchases are being made... the expected date of the fireworks show appears to be very soon...

China's Spratlys reclamations: Obama's Cuban Missile Crisis?

For 13 days in 1962, the whole world held its breath while the US physically confronted and prevented the Soviet Union from installing nuclear missiles in Cuba.

Realizing their obvious disadvantage in an all-out nuclear shoot-out with the US, the Soviets wisely backed-off.

While the event had a happy ending, its repercussions are still being debated to this day. Did it cause the subsequent assassination of JFK at Dallas in 1963?  Did it also cause the ouster of Nikita Kruschev in 1964?

Today, China is slowly pushing the US to the same corner in 1962.  She refuses to stop her military occupation of the Spratlys.  And just like Cuba, it would be unthinkable for the US to give up control of the Spratlys to another major power.  

So Obama's end game for this crisis is already quite obvious.  Eventually, he will have to impose a naval blockade on the Spratlys.  And simultaneously, he will have to put the entire US Military on red alert - just in case China decides to up the ante.

China will initially whine and cry foul.  But the Chinese have always been known as a practical people.  Clearly, their current capabilities vis-a-vis nuclear war against the US are even worse than the Soviets' in 1962.  So cooler heads will ultimately prevail in Beijing.  And China's Spratlys (mis)adventure, just like the Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba, will be relegated to the dustbin of history.

Will a Chinese debacle in the Spratlys lead to the ouster of Xi Jinping? 

Will it lead to the overthrow of the Communist Party?

Will it lead to the independence of Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Tibet, Manchuria, Xinjiang and Outer Mongolia?

Chain of Custody - the legal basis for any US intervention in the West Philippine Sea

The current territorial boundaries of the Republic of the Philippines were legally established on July 4, 1946 when the U.S. relinquished certain territories it "bought" from Spain in 1898 through the Treaty of Paris.  The U.S. did not receive any compensation for these territories from the Republic of the Philippines.  These territories were essentially "donated" to the Republic of the Philippines.

 

Currently, there is an on-going effort by the People's Republic of China to physically grab certain portions of these territories as "her own".  These are the western territories of the Republic of the Philippines bordering the South China Sea.

 

The People's Republic of China was only established on October 5, 1949.

 

Due to the overwhelming advantage in terms of military power of the People's Republic of China, it appears that the Republic of the Philippines may not be in a position to physically resist the People's Republic of China from physically occupying these territories.

 

Once the Donee, Republic of the Philippines, involuntarily relinquishes control over these donated territories, such territories should be deemed as abandoned, and the Donor, the United States of America, shall have the primary legal right to regain possession of her donation.   The U.S. donated these territories to the Republic of the Philippines, and not the People's Republic of China.

 

Any territory which the Republic of the Philippines loses control of, therefore, shall revert back to its former U.S. Territory status, which should be defended with any means the U.S. has at its disposal as mandated by the U.S. Constitution.

  

Paris Unity March - Where is the Philippine President?

 

More than 40 Heads of State (UK, Germany, Israel, etc.) and 1.5 million French citizens marched in Paris today to express unity with the victims of the recent Wolf Pack attacks in the city.  All over the country, a total of 3 million people joined the march.  This was probably the biggest of its kind in recent French history.

 

In view of our own country's problems with Jihadism, and our on-going disputes with China in the West Philippine Sea, it would have made geopolitical sense for PNoy to attend the march.

 

How can we mobilize international support for our UNCLOS arbitration case if we cannot go out of our way to sympathize with a G-7 and major EU country in their hour of need?

 

The diplomatic strategists of Malacanang were sleeping on their watch...

 

To help support its "Pivot to Asia" - the US is closing 15 military bases in Europe

 

The US has decided to close 15 military bases in Europe. None of these bases are major ones.  Nevertheless, these closures are expected to generate an extra $500 million a year for the Pentagon's budget.  And this money will be used as additional funding for the US's on-going "Pivot to Asia" strategic re-positioning of military assets.

 

I have said it before and I will say it again.  The Western Pacific has been a virtual "American Lake" since the end of WWII.  The US will never allow Beijing to just muscle its way into the territory without a  a fight.  The US, therefore, is dead serious (pardon the pun) with this "Pivot to Asia" thing.

 

On a side note, Portugal is protesting the reduction of US military personnel stationed in its territory.  Take note, I said "reduction".  There must be a lesson here somewhere for our self-proclaimed nationalists - the ones who are always trying to move heaven and earth to keep US military personnel out of our country...