Thursday, March 16, 2017

Nagging questions on Benham Rise

The series of events:

1. Philippine Department of National Defense (DND) Secretary Lorenzana publicly complained of the suspicious long presence of Communist Chinese ships at Benham Rise.

2. Philippine President Duterte said that he personally gave Communist China permission to conduct surveys at Benham Rise (apparently without DND Secretary Lorenzana's knowledge).

3. According to DND Secretary Lorenzana, Communist China appears to be looking for possible deployment locations for their submarines.

3. Philippine Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice (and recent Presidential Adviser) Carpio said that Benham Rise is not Philippine territory (Why on earth would he say that?).

4. Philippine Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice (and recent Presidential Adviser) Carpio said that other countries have the legal right to park their submarines within another country's Exclusive Economic Zone (Again, why on earth would he say that? And, it appears that he is wrong. The Exclusive Economic Zone sovereign rights holder has the exclusive right to establish installations on it.).

5. Philippine President Duterte ordered the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to construct permanent structures at Benham Rise.

The nagging questions:

1. Why would the President of a country go out of his way to accomodate the unusual request of another country which is currently actively grabbing other territories of his own country?

2. Did the Duterte Administration just secretly agreed to grant underwater submarine basing rights to Communist China at Benham Rise?

3. Is the publicized construction of AFP facilities at Benham Rise just a smokescreen for Communist China's own construction of underwater submarine facilities?

4. Is the Duterte Administration conscious of the fact that Benham Rise could be used as a base for Communist Chinese submarines (aka "Boomers") armed with intercontinental ballistic nuclear missiles aimed at military and civilian targets in  the Continental US (and would, therefore, be guaranteed to invite US retaliation)?

Sunday, May 1, 2016

Communist China's "Poison Pill" defense in the West Philippine Sea

Communist China recently announced that she has developed a portable nuclear reactor. Then she proclaimed to the whole world that she is planning to install them on all her Fake Islands in the West Philippine Sea. The official justification given was to meet the energy needs of these Fake Islands. But I think she has more sinister plans in mind.
You see, despite the much-publicized modernization the Communist Chinese Military had undergone, Uncle Sam can easily vaporize with stand-off firepower the facilities installed by Communist China on these Fake Islands within minutes of any military conflict.
The presence of nuclear materials on each island would complicate this. One wayward ordnance could release lethal nuclear radiation in the surrounding seas. And poison marine life for years to come. Think of a man-made Fukushima multiplied 20 times!
So instead of just placing stand-off ordnance cross-hairs on these Fake Islands, Uncle Sam will have to take them out one-by-one with ground troops.
But even that approach could not guarantee the avoidance of "nuclear incidents". Communist China can easily install self-destruct charges on these portable nuclear plants. And turn each one of them into a "dirty-bomb-in-waiting".
And judging by the degree of callousness Communist China had shown in destroying all those marine life in the Spratlys in the pursuit of her fraudulent Nine-Dash Line claim, she certainly had it in her to commit this dastardly act. 


Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Is Communist China upstaging the US in the West Philippine Sea?

I just saw an article by the Wall Street Journal claiming that Communist China has upstaged the US in the WPS.
For the record, I think the main obstacle to US Military Action against Communist China in the WPS is Wall Street. Which, understandably, wants to protect its investments in Communist China at all cost. No investor in his right mind would exchange a multi-trillion dollar portfolio for a bunch of uninhabited islets, shoals and reefs in the middle of nowhere.

Beijing knows this too. That's why she is brazenly doing what she is doing now, notwithstanding the overwhelming firepower of the US Military she is facing.

Communist China is not upstaging the US in the WPS, she is just taking advantage of the Economic Interests of America's 1%!

But how long will this Economic Interest Umbrella last? You and I know that it can be trounced overnight by adverse American Public Opinion. And the way I see it, all that is missing now is that teenie-weenie spark that will propel adverse American Public Opinion to heights that would justify US Military Action.

Just remember, before Pearl Harbor, the Empire of Japan was seemingly upstaging the US all over the Western Pacific too.

Tick-tock... Tick-tock...

Saturday, April 9, 2016

Remembering Bataan

Today, April 9, is Bataan Day.

Let us all take a moment of silence to remember our relatives and their brothers-in-arms who gave everything they had in the Defense of Liberty.

War is hell... but losing one is the worst fate of all.

Let us all bear this in mind as the prospect of war with Communist China grows stronger everyday. Never again should we allow a hostile foreign power occupy our shores!

Interestingly, we are now on the same side as our old WWII nemesis, the Japanese.

Which just goes to show that in geopolitics, there are no permanent friends or enemies...

Only permanent interests.

Sunday, February 21, 2016

The Sunnylands US-ASEAN Summit was a resounding success, but we might need a WESPACTO...

Despite what some pundits might have said, the recently-concluded Sunnylands US-ASEAN Summit was a resounding diplomatic success for the Obama Administration vis-a-vis Communist China. Just read the full text of the Sunnylands Joint Declaration presented below.  One does not have to be a rocket scientist to immediately recognize that Statement Nos. 6 to 8 are specifically directed against Communist China.

At the same time, however, one also realizes that the Sunnylands Joint Declaration is already the best that ASEAN can do. Although ASEAN was created partly because of the collective fear of Chinese Communism, it has evolved through the years as a socio-economic organization, and not a security one.

In the 1960s, Communist China was just carrying the Big Stick of Communism. Now it is carrying both the Big Stick of Communism, as well as the Big Carrot of Economic Develepment. And among the 10 members of ASEAN, only five (5) are currently threatened by the Big Stick of Communist China. It is a tribute to the diplomatic efforts of the Obama Administration that the remaining five (5) also went along with the Sunnylands Joint Declaration. But it is understandable if they will refuse to go any further, specially if it will involve potential military confrontations with Communist China. The upside is not just there for them.

So what is needed now is a defense-oriented version of ASEAN. Something similar to the now-defunct SEATO.

And the obvious members of this new defense organization would be the US, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, Japan and Australia.

And here is a possible name: Western Pacific Treaty Organization (WESPACTO)

February 16, 2016

Joint Statement of the U.S.-ASEAN Special Leaders’ Summit: Sunnylands Declaration

Sunnylands, California

February 15-16, 2016

We the Heads of State/Government of the Member States of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the United States of America gathered in Sunnylands, California, on February 15-16, 2016, for a Special Leaders Summit.  This Special U.S.-ASEAN Leaders Summit was the first ever to be held in the United States and the very first Summit following the establishment of the ASEAN Community.

The Summit marked a watershed year for both ASEAN and for the increasingly close U.S-ASEAN. strategic partnership. In 2015, ASEAN Member States celebrated the establishment of the ASEAN Community, working together toward an ASEAN that better serves the people of Southeast Asia.

At our Summit in Kuala Lumpur in November 2015, we elevated the U.S.-ASEAN relationship to a strategic partnership, recognizing the transformation of our relationship over the past several years. On the occasion of this Special Summit, we the Heads of State/Government of the Member States of ASEAN and the United States of America take this opportunity to reaffirm the key principles that will guide our cooperation going forward:

1.    Mutual respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, equality and political independence of all nations by firmly upholding the principles and purposes of the Charter of the United Nations, the ASEAN Charter and international law;

2.    The importance of shared prosperity, sustainable, inclusive economic growth and development, and the nurturing of our young people to sustain continued peace, development, and stability for mutual benefit;

3.   Mutual recognition of the importance of pursuing policies that lead to dynamic, open, and competitive economies that foster economic growth, job creation, innovation, entrepreneurship and connectivity, and that support SMEs and narrow the development gap;

4.   Our commitment to ensure opportunities for all of our peoples, through strengthening democracy, enhancing good governance and adherence to the rule of law, promoting and protecting human rights and fundamental freedoms, encouraging the promotion of tolerance and moderation, and protecting the environment;

5.   Respect and support for ASEAN Centrality and ASEAN-led mechanisms in the evolving regional architecture of the Asia-Pacific;

6.   Firm adherence to a rules-based regional and international order that upholds and protects the rights and privileges of all states;

7.   Shared commitment to peaceful resolution of disputes, including full respect for legal and diplomatic processes, without resorting to the threat or use of force in accordance with universally recognized principles of international law and the 1982 United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS);

8.   Shared commitment to maintain peace, security and stability in the region, ensuring maritime security and safety, including the rights of freedom of navigation and overflight and other lawful uses of the seas, and unimpeded lawful maritime commerce as described in the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as well as non-militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of activities;

9.   Shared commitment to promote cooperation to address common challenges in the maritime domain;

10.   Strong resolve to lead on global issues such as terrorism and violent extremism, trafficking in persons, drug trafficking, and illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, as well as illicit trafficking of wildlife and timber;

11.   Shared commitment to addressing climate change and developing a climate-resilient, environmentally sustainable ASEAN, as well as to implement individual countries’ nationally determined contributions made under the Paris Climate Agreement;

12.   Shared commitment to promote security and stability in cyberspace consistent with norms of responsible state behavior;

13.   Support for the advancement of a strong, stable, politically cohesive, economically integrated, socially responsible, people-oriented, people-centered and rules-based ASEAN Community;

14.   Shared commitment to strengthen people-to-people connectivity through programs that engage ASEAN and American citizens, particularly young people, and that promote opportunities for all our peoples, particularly the most vulnerable, to fulfil the vision of the ASEAN Community;

15.   Shared commitment to promote a global partnership for sustainable development through the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Addis Ababa Action Agenda, to ensure a sustainable, equitable and inclusive society where no one is left behind;

16.    Shared commitment to enhance collaboration at international and regional fora, especially at existing ASEAN-led mechanisms; and

17.    Shared commitment to continue political dialogue at the Head of State/Government level through our Leaders’ attendance at the annual U.S.-ASEAN Summit and the East Asia Summit.

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Revive SEATO at the US-ASEAN Summit!!!

For the first time in history, the US will host a summit with ASEAN starting tomorrow, February 15, 2016.

The summit will be held at the same California venue where POTUS once hosted Communist China's Xi Jinping.

The subliminal message is quite clear. To Uncle Sam, the 10-country ASEAN has now the same geopolitical value as Communist China!

What should be the focus of this historic summit?

The TPP should be one.

Certainly not human rights. A significant number of ASEAN's Heads-of-State have skeletons in their human rights closet.

Communist China's fake islands in the Spratlys should be another.

But POTUS can really make this summit an earth-shaking event if he will be able to plant the seeds for the revival of SEATO, the Cold War SEA equivalent of NATO.

Some ASEAN members, like Cambodia, will surely refuse to join for obvious reasons.

But the great majority of ASEAN are now in the right mood to join a regional defense alliance.

After all, the Communist China they are now facing is more powerful and more aggressive than the one they faced during the Cold War.

The only difference is that, this time, the whole of Vietnam are on the side of the Good Guys.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Uncle Sam is the goose that lays the Golden Eggs for the Philippines

The 1st Golden Egg

The estimated number of Filipinos currently residing in the US is about 3 Million. They account for about 43% of the total inward FOREX remittances to the Philippines. In 2014, this amounted to about $10.4 Billion.

The 2nd Golden Egg

The Philippines has become the primary destination of the BPO business of English-speaking America. The annual revenue being generated by the Philippine BPO Industry is now about $25 Billion.

The 3rd Golden Egg

Since the Panatag Shoal Crisis in mid-2012, we are witness to the steady stream of US military hardware in our Country - guided missile warships, nuclear submarines, etc. These equipment are not cheap. And we need them to keep Communist China at bay. If we acquire and operate them ourselves, I would conservatively estimate the annual cost as no lower than $10 Billion.


Based on the foregoing, it appears that the Golden Eggs which our goose Uncle Sam lays for us are currently worth about $45 Billion per annum.

One does not have to be a genius to figure out that if something bad happens to Uncle Sam's economy, there will be a corresponding reduction in the value of the Philippines' annual Golden Egg windfall.

So whenever the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) needs to buy something, it should always try to buy American first.

And this is particularly true in our military purchases.

Because the US Defense Industry is a major pillar of the US Economy.