Monday, July 27, 2020

ECONOMIC POWER - Communist China vs. Western World


UPDATE (27 JULY 2020)

As of today, this balance of economic power has more or less remained the same.

Yes, the Wuhan Virus has severely mangled the global economy.

But everyone appears to have been uniformly impacted.

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ORIGINAL POST (11 FEBRUARY 2016)

Much has been said about the current Economic Power of Communist China. Let us see how the Nominal GDP figures stack up.

The Nominal GDP of the key countries in the Western World are as follows:

   EU - $18.5 Trillion
   US - $17.9 Trillion
   Latin America - $9.5 Trillion
   Japan - $4.1 Trillion
   Canada - $1.6 Trillion
   South Korea - $1.3 Trillion
   Australia - $1.2 Trillion
   Philippines - $0.3 Trillion

That's a combined total of $54.4 Trillion!

Now, let's take a look at Communist China and her lone ally:

   Communist China - $11.4 Trillion
   North Korea - $0.0 Trillion

That's an almost 5:1 advantage for the Western World!

So tell me again about the Economic Power of Communist China...

Thursday, July 23, 2020

China's Spratlys reclamations: Trump's Cuban Missile Crisis?


UPDATE (23 JULY 2020)

This is now starting to emerge as incumbent President Donald Trump's moment of Truth.

The geopolitical variables have remained the same. Only the POTUS is different.

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For 13 days in 1962, the whole world held its breath while the US physically confronted and prevented the Soviet Union from installing nuclear missiles in Cuba.

Realizing their obvious disadvantage in an all-out nuclear shoot-out with the US, the Soviets wisely backed-off.

While the event had a happy ending, its repercussions are still being debated to this day. Did it cause the subsequent assassination of JFK at Dallas in 1963?  Did it also cause the ouster of Nikita Kruschev in 1964?

Today, China is slowly pushing the US to the same corner in 1962.  She refuses to stop her military occupation of the Spratlys.  And just like Cuba, it would be unthinkable for the US to give up control of the Spratlys to another major power.  

So Obama's end game for this crisis is already quite obvious.  Eventually, he will have to impose a naval blockade on the Spratlys.  And simultaneously, he will have to put the entire US Military on red alert - just in case China decides to up the ante.

China will initially whine and cry foul.  But the Chinese have always been known as a practical people.  Clearly, their current capabilities vis-a-vis nuclear war against the US are even worse than the Soviets' in 1962.  So cooler heads will ultimately prevail in Beijing.  And China's Spratlys (mis)adventure, just like the Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba, will be relegated to the dustbin of history.

Will a Chinese debacle in the Spratlys lead to the ouster of Xi Jinping? 

Will it lead to the overthrow of the Communist Party?

Will it lead to the independence of Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Tibet, Manchuria, Xinjiang and Outer Mongolia?



Tuesday, July 21, 2020

US Naval and Aerial Blockade - the only way to peacefully eject Communist China from the Spratlys



UPDATE (21 JUL 2020)

Uncle Sam just made an abrupt official policy shift and declared that Beijing's fake islands in the West Philippine Sea are "illegal". Analysts are of the opinion that this move opens the legal floodgates to a potential military intervention.

Logically, Uncle Sam's next step would be an aerial and naval blockade of one of Beijing's fake islands. Say, Mischief Reef.

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UPDATE (16 JAN 2017)

There is a new POTUS. And it appears that his administration agrees in principle that Communist China must be kicked out of the West Philippine Sea with whatever means necessary.

Unfortunately, the National Government of the Philippines is now overtly pro-Communist China.

So once again, Uncle Sam might have to do this on his own. But despite the Communist Chinese loyalties of the incumbent Philippine National Government, there will still be millions of Filipinos who will be eternally grateful.


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UPDATE (24 FEB 2016):

Since the last update of this post, Communist China had done the following:

1. Flew civilian tourists to the Spratlys;
2. Deployed SAMs to the Paracels; and
3. Deployed combat aircraft to the Paracels.

Obviously, these are "cabbage leaves" designed to wrap the competition into submission.

It is time for Uncle Sam to get tough with Communist China.


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UPDATE (07 JAN 2016):

This article was originally written about eight (8) months ago.

Since then, Uncle Sam had conducted several "Freedom of Navigation" maneuvers in the area.

Did it deliver the desired effect?

Judging by the fact that Communist China is now flying aircraft to and from Fiery Cross Reef... Hell, no!

It is time for Uncle Sam to up the ante...

Impose a naval and aerial blockade on any permanent foreign presence in the section of the Spratlys which is within the 200-mile EEZ of the Philippines!


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ORIGINAL ARTICLE (18 APR 2015):

Based on the latest media reports, China is now constructing two (2) runways in the Spratlys.  This is being accomplished by destroying 500 acres of live coral reefs.

In all likelihood, they will also construct a third runway at Mischief Reef.  And this reef is only 130 miles from the shores of the Philippines (roughly the same distance from New York City to Wilmington, Delaware).

Once these runways are operational, Beijing's logical next step would be to declare an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the entire Spratlys.  And then, she will impose a naval blockade to prevent all other claimants from entering the area.  This will starve-out the civilian settlements and military garrisons of the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan.  The West Philippine Sea and the South China Sea will then effectively become just mere backyard ponds in Beijing's growing empire. This is a textbook implementation of the Chinese Cabbage Strategy.

But this ominous development can still be stopped dead on its tracks.  The US can jump the gun on Beijing's impending aerial and naval blockade of the territory by imposing an aerial and naval blockade of its own - using the pretext of keeping international sea lanes open, as well as protecting the marine environment from further wanton destruction.

The Philippine Government can fire the opening salvo for this move by executing a formal written request for US intervention to the American People.

The million-dollar question then would be on how Beijing would react to this move.  Will she dare go to war (and certain naval humiliation) in the defense of her fraudulent Nine-Dash Line claim?  I don't think so.

And even if she does, it is always better to fight a half-prepared adversary than a fully-prepared one.

Once those runways are in place, the casualty count (and ergo the potential for a much wider conflagration) would be much higher.

The time to act is NOW!!!