Sunday, February 21, 2016

The Sunnylands US-ASEAN Summit was a resounding success, but we might need a WESPACTO...


Despite what some pundits might have said, the recently-concluded Sunnylands US-ASEAN Summit was a resounding diplomatic success for the Obama Administration vis-a-vis Communist China. Just read the full text of the Sunnylands Joint Declaration presented below.  One does not have to be a rocket scientist to immediately recognize that Statement Nos. 6 to 8 are specifically directed against Communist China.

At the same time, however, one also realizes that the Sunnylands Joint Declaration is already the best that ASEAN can do. Although ASEAN was created partly because of the collective fear of Chinese Communism, it has evolved through the years as a socio-economic organization, and not a security one.

In the 1960s, Communist China was just carrying the Big Stick of Communism. Now it is carrying both the Big Stick of Communism, as well as the Big Carrot of Economic Develepment. And among the 10 members of ASEAN, only five (5) are currently threatened by the Big Stick of Communist China. It is a tribute to the diplomatic efforts of the Obama Administration that the remaining five (5) also went along with the Sunnylands Joint Declaration. But it is understandable if they will refuse to go any further, specially if it will involve potential military confrontations with Communist China. The upside is not just there for them.

So what is needed now is a defense-oriented version of ASEAN. Something similar to the now-defunct SEATO.

And the obvious members of this new defense organization would be the US, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, Japan and Australia.

And here is a possible name: Western Pacific Treaty Organization (WESPACTO)


************************************
February 16, 2016

Joint Statement of the U.S.-ASEAN Special Leaders’ Summit: Sunnylands Declaration

Sunnylands, California

February 15-16, 2016

We the Heads of State/Government of the Member States of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the United States of America gathered in Sunnylands, California, on February 15-16, 2016, for a Special Leaders Summit.  This Special U.S.-ASEAN Leaders Summit was the first ever to be held in the United States and the very first Summit following the establishment of the ASEAN Community.

The Summit marked a watershed year for both ASEAN and for the increasingly close U.S-ASEAN. strategic partnership. In 2015, ASEAN Member States celebrated the establishment of the ASEAN Community, working together toward an ASEAN that better serves the people of Southeast Asia.

At our Summit in Kuala Lumpur in November 2015, we elevated the U.S.-ASEAN relationship to a strategic partnership, recognizing the transformation of our relationship over the past several years. On the occasion of this Special Summit, we the Heads of State/Government of the Member States of ASEAN and the United States of America take this opportunity to reaffirm the key principles that will guide our cooperation going forward:

1.    Mutual respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, equality and political independence of all nations by firmly upholding the principles and purposes of the Charter of the United Nations, the ASEAN Charter and international law;

2.    The importance of shared prosperity, sustainable, inclusive economic growth and development, and the nurturing of our young people to sustain continued peace, development, and stability for mutual benefit;

3.   Mutual recognition of the importance of pursuing policies that lead to dynamic, open, and competitive economies that foster economic growth, job creation, innovation, entrepreneurship and connectivity, and that support SMEs and narrow the development gap;

4.   Our commitment to ensure opportunities for all of our peoples, through strengthening democracy, enhancing good governance and adherence to the rule of law, promoting and protecting human rights and fundamental freedoms, encouraging the promotion of tolerance and moderation, and protecting the environment;

5.   Respect and support for ASEAN Centrality and ASEAN-led mechanisms in the evolving regional architecture of the Asia-Pacific;

6.   Firm adherence to a rules-based regional and international order that upholds and protects the rights and privileges of all states;

7.   Shared commitment to peaceful resolution of disputes, including full respect for legal and diplomatic processes, without resorting to the threat or use of force in accordance with universally recognized principles of international law and the 1982 United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS);

8.   Shared commitment to maintain peace, security and stability in the region, ensuring maritime security and safety, including the rights of freedom of navigation and overflight and other lawful uses of the seas, and unimpeded lawful maritime commerce as described in the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as well as non-militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of activities;

9.   Shared commitment to promote cooperation to address common challenges in the maritime domain;

10.   Strong resolve to lead on global issues such as terrorism and violent extremism, trafficking in persons, drug trafficking, and illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, as well as illicit trafficking of wildlife and timber;

11.   Shared commitment to addressing climate change and developing a climate-resilient, environmentally sustainable ASEAN, as well as to implement individual countries’ nationally determined contributions made under the Paris Climate Agreement;

12.   Shared commitment to promote security and stability in cyberspace consistent with norms of responsible state behavior;

13.   Support for the advancement of a strong, stable, politically cohesive, economically integrated, socially responsible, people-oriented, people-centered and rules-based ASEAN Community;

14.   Shared commitment to strengthen people-to-people connectivity through programs that engage ASEAN and American citizens, particularly young people, and that promote opportunities for all our peoples, particularly the most vulnerable, to fulfil the vision of the ASEAN Community;

15.   Shared commitment to promote a global partnership for sustainable development through the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Addis Ababa Action Agenda, to ensure a sustainable, equitable and inclusive society where no one is left behind;

16.    Shared commitment to enhance collaboration at international and regional fora, especially at existing ASEAN-led mechanisms; and

17.    Shared commitment to continue political dialogue at the Head of State/Government level through our Leaders’ attendance at the annual U.S.-ASEAN Summit and the East Asia Summit.

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Revive SEATO at the US-ASEAN Summit!!!


For the first time in history, the US will host a summit with ASEAN starting tomorrow, February 15, 2016.

The summit will be held at the same California venue where POTUS once hosted Communist China's Xi Jinping.

The subliminal message is quite clear. To Uncle Sam, the 10-country ASEAN has now the same geopolitical value as Communist China!

What should be the focus of this historic summit?

The TPP should be one.

Certainly not human rights. A significant number of ASEAN's Heads-of-State have skeletons in their human rights closet.

Communist China's fake islands in the Spratlys should be another.

But POTUS can really make this summit an earth-shaking event if he will be able to plant the seeds for the revival of SEATO, the Cold War SEA equivalent of NATO.

Some ASEAN members, like Cambodia, will surely refuse to join for obvious reasons.

But the great majority of ASEAN are now in the right mood to join a regional defense alliance.

After all, the Communist China they are now facing is more powerful and more aggressive than the one they faced during the Cold War.

The only difference is that, this time, the whole of Vietnam are on the side of the Good Guys.



Saturday, February 13, 2016

Uncle Sam is the goose that lays the Golden Eggs for the Philippines


The 1st Golden Egg

The estimated number of Filipinos currently residing in the US is about 3 Million. They account for about 43% of the total inward FOREX remittances to the Philippines. In 2014, this amounted to about $10.4 Billion.

The 2nd Golden Egg

The Philippines has become the primary destination of the BPO business of English-speaking America. The annual revenue being generated by the Philippine BPO Industry is now about $25 Billion.

The 3rd Golden Egg

Since the Panatag Shoal Crisis in mid-2012, we are witness to the steady stream of US military hardware in our Country - guided missile warships, nuclear submarines, etc. These equipment are not cheap. And we need them to keep Communist China at bay. If we acquire and operate them ourselves, I would conservatively estimate the annual cost as no lower than $10 Billion.

Conclusion

Based on the foregoing, it appears that the Golden Eggs which our goose Uncle Sam lays for us are currently worth about $45 Billion per annum.

One does not have to be a genius to figure out that if something bad happens to Uncle Sam's economy, there will be a corresponding reduction in the value of the Philippines' annual Golden Egg windfall.

So whenever the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) needs to buy something, it should always try to buy American first.

And this is particularly true in our military purchases.

Because the US Defense Industry is a major pillar of the US Economy.

Friday, February 12, 2016

The Philippines is the key to continued US global supremacy


According to the World Bank, the Per Capita Nominal GDP of the US in 2015 was $55,904.

Theoretically, therefore, 101 million Filipinos have the potential to add $5.6 Trillion a year in Nominal GDP to the US Economy. That will make the US Economy even larger than the entire EU!

If the US wants to maintain its lone superpower status well into the 22nd Century, the obvious solution is to re-absorb the Philippines.

And this can easily be done. All the US has to do is pass a law declaring as US Citizens all US Subjects born in the Philippines when the latter was still a US territory.

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Spend on National Defense like Singapore!



At an Annual Defense Budget of $10 Billion, we will be more or less on the same level as Singapore. Can you imagine what $10 Billion a year can do to the AFP?

And as the figures below show, this is totally doable:

Singapore
Nominal GDP - $308 Billion
Population - 5.7 Million
Per Capita GDP - $53,604
Defense Budget - $9.5 Billion
Per Capita Defense Budget - $1,667
As % of Per Capita GDP - 3.1%

Philippines
Nominal GDP - $330 Billion
Population - 101 Million
Per Capita GDP - $3,267
Defense Budget - $3.8 Billion
Per Capita Defense Budget - $37.62

@Defense Budget = $10 Billion:
    Per Capita Defense Budget - $99
    As % of Per Capita GDP - 3.0%

With an annnual budget of $10 Billion, the AFP will clearly be able to afford the latest MRFs, GM frigates, submarines, ASMs and SAMs. So, why aren't we doing it?


Lessons from India


Here are the comparative stats for India and the Philippines:

India
Nominal GDP - $2,041 Billion
Population - 1,277 Million
Per Capita GDP - $1,598
Defense Budget - $40.7 Billion
Poverty Level - 29.8%
Poor Headcount - 380,546,000

Philippines
Nominal GDP - $330 Billion
Population - 101 Million
Per Capita GDP - $3,267
Defense Budget - $3.8 Billion
Poverty Level - 25.2%
Poor Headcount - 25,452,000

Here are the interpretations of the above stats:

1. The living conditions of the average Indian is much worse than the average Filipino.

2. At about 381 Million, the number of poor people in India is almost 4X the total population of the Philippines.

3. Percentage-wise, the poverty level in India is also higher than in the Philippines.

4. Despite her not-so-rosy economic conditions, India managed to come up with a Defense Budget of about $41 Billion. And this level of defense spending enabled her to invest in aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, satellites, and nukes.

5. Just like the Philippines, India is also a Democracy.

Conclusion

Poverty and lack of money is not the main cause of the laughable state of the Philippine Military.

The Filipino Poor is just being used as a convenient bleeding-heart excuse.

The main cause is Lack of Political Will.

As a cliche saying goes: If there's a Will, there's a Way!

ECONOMIC POWER - Communist China vs. Western World


Much has been said about the current Economic Power of Communist China. Let us see how the Nominal GDP figures stack up.

The Nominal GDP of the key countries in the Western World are as follows:

   EU - $18.5 Trillion
   US - $17.9 Trillion
   Latin America - $9.5 Trillion
   Japan - $4.1 Trillion
   Canada - $1.6 Trillion
   South Korea - $1.3 Trillion
   Australia - $1.2 Trillion
   Philippines - $0.3 Trillion

That's a combined total of $54.4 Trillion!

Now, let's take a look at Communist China and her lone ally:

   Communist China - $11.4 Trillion
   North Korea - $0.0 Trillion

That's an almost 5:1 advantage for the Western World!

So tell me again about the Economic Power of Communist China...

Monday, February 8, 2016

Lumbia Airport hypocrisies


GRP Hypocrisy

Malacanang is still insisting that the US facilities at Lumbia Airport will be merely used to store Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) equipment.

C'mon POTPHI, this is already the Age of the Internet. Do you think the Filipino is still that gullible?

The whole world knows that the US Military is back in force in the Philippines to counter the threat of an on-going Communist Chinese Invasion. Right now, the Invasion is at a creeping pace. But tomorrow, it may not be so. The US Military is our insurance policy against the possibility that Communist China will one day be tempted to quickly actualize her delusions of grandeur.

So the best approach to this controversy is for POTPHI to come clean and tell the Filipino People that the Lumbia Airport facilities will definitely also be used to store US military hardware needed to counter any future military adventurism by Communist China. But for reasons of national security, the details of such hardware cannot be made public.

I think the majority of Filipinos would appreciate such a more forthcoming approach, rather than be blatantly lied upon like an ignoramus.

Philippine Left Hypocrisy

This is the greatest hypocrisy of all.

The Philippine Left is trying to make mountains out of the Lumbia Airport mole hill.

That will just be a freaking military equipment storage facility!

Compared to the airbase Communist China has constructed on Mischief Reef (and other fake islands in the Spratlys), that's practically nothing! 

But my advice on the Philippine Left is to keep on protesting.

Because you are doing a good job of showing the Filipino People where your sympathies really lie.

That deep in your hearts, you honestly believe that it will be to the best interest of your Misguided Ideology...

If the Philippines becomes a vassal state of Communist China.

Sunday, February 7, 2016

The AFP needs a Nine-Point Modernization


Why Nine (9) points?

Blame Communist China and her fake Nine-Dash Line.

Since the clear-and-present danger to Our Country's territorial integrity is the infamous Nine-Dash Line, we might as well come up with a Nine-Point Modenization for the AFP. This is the geopolitical adaptation of the "eye-for-an-eye" principle.

So here it is:

PAF
1. 5th Gen MRF (ASM & LR AAM capable)
2. UAVs (GM capable)
3. Recon Satellites

PN
4. GM Frigates (ASM, SAM & ASW capable)
5. Attack Submarines (ASM capable)
6. UUVs

PA & PMC
7. MBTs (M1 series by default)
8. MLRS (M270 by default)
9. Attack Helo (AH-64 by default)

I know that these upgrades will take a lot of money. But let us ask ourselves the question: With the benefit of hindsight, would we have been willing to mortgage everything we had in 1940 just to avoid the suffering and humiliation we endured during the occupation of Our Country by another Asian Imperialist during the years 1941-45?

And my attack helicopter recommendation would be controversial. But hey, who flies the Apaches and Super Cobras of the US Military?

Saturday, February 6, 2016

Issue War Bonds to finance the PAF Modernization


At the height of the Panatag Shoal Fiasco in mid-2012, the idea of issuing War Bonds to immediately address the funding shortfall of the on-going AFP Modernization Program was floated among Anti-China Nine-Dash Line netizens.

More than three (3) years and several completed Communist Chinese fake islands later, the National Govenment has not done anything on the matter.

And some people are still waving the "We are poor!" placard to justify the sorry state of the AFP, specially the PAF and the PN.

So, why is this not happening National Government?

Are you still afraid to upset Beijing?

If you think that the term "War Bond" is too provocative, let us call it "Defense Bond" to make it sound more politically correct.


I am confident that we can easily raise $10 Billion to $15 Billion through a War Bond issuance. They should probably be denominated in USD to make them more attractive to OFWs and Foreign Investors.

But the bottom line is, we should start the ball rolling...

We are up against someone who is determined enough to manufacture fake islands in the middle of nowhere!

SITREP 2016 Feb 05 - Communist China Nine-Front War on the Western World Order


The Situation as of Friday, February 5, 2016:

1. European Security

a. Rand Corp. researchers say NATO will lose the Baltic Region within 36 hours in case of a Russian invasion.

b. UK and Germany urges the EU to do something about the influx of cheap steel from Communist China and Russia.

2. Middle Eastern Security

a. Talks are underway for a Syrian ceasefire.

b. Syrian Government troops have surrounded Syrian Rebels at Aleppo. Thousands of Syrian refugees flee to the Turkish border.

c. Saudi Arabia offers to send ground troops to Syria.

d. The leader of a coalition of Syrian rebel forces makes a multi-day visit to Beijing.

3. Asia-Pacific Trade

a. Hillary Clinton is now opposing the TPP.

b. Communist China will generate about $1.4 Trillion in exports from FTAAP.

4. Global Finance

a. Russia, the 3rd largest AIIB shareholder after Communist China and India, expects the bank to grant its first loan within six (6) months.

b. Communist China threatens to impose sanctions on offending US companies.

c. A group of Communist Chinese investors is negotiating to buy the Chicago Stock Exchange, in an obvious move to list more Communist Chinese stocks in the US stock market.

5. Global Currency

a. About 40% of Communist China-Africa trade are now Yuan-denominated.

b. Russia accepts Yuan as payment, becomes top exporter of crude oil to Communist China.

6. African Trade

a. 2015 Africa exports to Communist China down by 38%.

7. NE Asian Territories

a. Two (2) Communist Chinese fighters enter South Korea's ADIZ.

b. North Korea officially prepares to launch a long-range rocket carrying a satellite. But defense experts say this will really be a thinly-disguised ICBM test.

8. Western Pacific Security

a. US Sen. John McCain tells One America News (OAN) that, as told to him by the late Singapore PM Lee Kuan Yew, the ultimate aim of Communist China is to control the entire Western Pacific. In response to this threat, Sen. McCain is proposing that a second USN aircraft carrier should be permanently based in Japan.

b. USS Curtis Wilbur conducts FONOP within 12-miles of the Communist China-occupied Paracels, drawing virulent protests from Beijing.

c. RAAF patrols now being routinely challenged by Beijing in the South China Sea.

9. SE Asian Territories

a. The Philippine Legislature reverses its previous decision rejecting the AFP's proposed MRF Budget. The AFP will now have $210 Million for the purchase of MRFs in 2016.

b. The National Youth Movement for the West Philippine Sea (NYMWPS) Palawan, Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao is launched.

c. Communist China brings tourists for the first time to her fake island at Fiery Cross Reef. Beijing claims they were the wives and children of troops stationed on the fake island.

d. Communist China warns Filipino Students against a second visit to the Kalayaans.

e. Communist China starts cracking down on critics based overseas. She reportedly abducted several from Thailand and Myanmar (as well as Hongkong).

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

How to increase the budget allocation for National Defense without violating the 1987 Philippine Constitution?


1987 Philippine Constitution, Article XIV, Section 5 (5) says: "The State shall assign the highest budgetary priority to education..."

Through the years, this has been interpreted as: "The Department of Education shall always have the highest allocation in the National Budget."

But the Constitution only says "Education" and not "Department of Education". And we all know that other national agencies of the Philippine Government also engage in educational activities, and not only the Department of Education.

For example, the PMA, PMMA, PAF Flying School, and the PNPA are essentially educational institutions. The same goes for the AFP Command and General Staff College, as well as the National Defense College of the Philippines. Shouldn't their budgets be counted under "Education" for purposes of evaluating compliance with the Education Budget restriction of the Constitution?

The expense for training PAF personnel in flying and servicing the newly-acquired FA-50 should also be counted as "Education".

In fact, all training-related and education-related costs of all government agencies should be counted as "Education".

The portion of the National Budget spent on "Education" should, therefore, be calculated as the Budget of the Department of Education PLUS the training-related and education-related budgets of all other government agencies.

If this formula is used, the allocation percentage for the Defense Budget can easily be 16% or more of the Total National Budget and exceed the Department of Education Budget, without violating the Constitution.

Monday, February 1, 2016

The Philippine Annual Defense Budget should at least be $10 Billion


During the years 1996-2015, the U.S. level of defense spending was at its lowest in 1998 and in 2015.

In both years, the U.S. Defense Budget only amounted to 16% of the Total National Budget.

At only the conservative rate of 16% of the Total National Budget, the Philippine Defense Budget for 2016 should, therefore, be $10 Billion (the Total National Budget of the Philippines for 2016 is $62.5 Billion). And not just $3.8 Billion!

So please tell me again that the Philippine Air Force has no money to buy and operate a 5th Generation MRF like the F-35 Lightning II...

Or that the Philippine Navy has no money to buy Attack Submarines...

Or that the Philippine Army has no money to buy Main Battle Tanks (MBTs)...

The money is there.

What we just need is a National Paradigm Shift...

The annual cost to buy and operate an F-35A is only $7.9 Million


According to Lockheed Martin, the estimated price of an F-35A by 2018 will be $85 Million.

As per the latest Pentagon estimate, the total cost of operating an F-35 for 55 years is $351 Million ($857 Billion/ 2,443 planes).

This means that the total cost of buying and operating an F-35A for 55 years will be $436 Million.

And the annual cost of owning and operating an F-35A for 55 years will only be $7.9 Million.

For a squadron of 12 F-35As, that amounts to $94.8 Million per year. 

With a 2016 annual budget of $62.5 Billion, can the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) not afford to spare $94.8 Million for a Squadron of F-35As?

By golly, that's only 0.15% of the GRP's annual budget!

And we have not even taken into account the wide disparity in Labor Cost Rates between the US and the Philippines...