The Death of ASEAN

the ease with which Beijing was able to employ "divide et empira" tactics against ASEAN in the recently-concluded Phnom Penh Summit may be an indication that the Organization has already outlived its original purpose... it was originally conceived as a bulwark against communist expansionism in SE Asia at the height of the Cold War in the mid-60s... the Cold War and communism... are long dead...

former communist bedfellows Beijing and Hanoi are now sworn adversaries... and are just one sneeze away from another shooting war... judging by its behavior during the Summit, Thailand is in the process of going to bed with Beijing...  Cambodia, on the other hand, is seemingly suffering from a severe case of "Killing Fields Amnesia"... and is back in the arms of the Killing Fields Sponsor...

with the threat of communism gone... ASEAN has recently re-focused its efforts towards economic targets... maybe one day... a common market... or even a common currency... the EU of SE Asia...

but Beijing will not just stand idly by and let 600 million SEA people build an economic empire that could rival its own... while the short-term impetus for Beijing's belligerent acts in the WPS (West Philippine Sea) appears to be territorial gain... i suspect that there is something more to it than what meets the eye... it is maybe part and parcel of a grand strategy to stop the formation of an ASEAN Common Market dead on its tracks... and by all appearances, Beijing was able to accomplish that at Phnom Penh...

with Cambodia and Thailand now perceived, rightly or wrongly, as the stalking horses of Beijing in ASEAN... any effort to obtain the support of the Organization on measures that have an anti-Bejing smell will be presumed as doomed to fail...  and ASEAN members like the Philippines and Vietnam, who have serious territorial disputes with Beijing, will have to look for support elsewhere...

one option is to form a new defense-oriented regional organization of SEA countries which have direct territorial disputes with Beijing...  this would include the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia... with a combined population of about 450 million... this organization will have more manpower than the US of A... and if properly equipped with the latest weaponry... will be a formidable force to be reckoned with...